Analysts in Argentina raise the inflation forecast to 95% in 2022

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The monthly report of the market analysts of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) reflected this Friday an acceleration in the expected retail inflation in the country, projecting an annual 95% for December of 2022, 4.8 percentage points more than the measurement of the previous month.

The private projection on the evolution of retail prices for 2023 also increased compared to last month’s survey, going to 84.1%, reflecting a rise of 7.6 percentage points.

This forecast, included in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) report published this Friday, corresponds to the analysis of the last week of August 2022.

Argentine inflation, one of the highest in Latin America, was 71% in July 2022 and 7.4% monthly, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec), which will release the price index next Wednesday. August 2022 consumer.

The BCRA’s expectations report forecasts a monthly inflation of 6.5% for August 2022.

Inflation forecasts moved even further from the ranges of 52-62% for 2022 and 46-54% for 2023 forecasted in assumptions, which had already been revised, of the agreement reached by Argentina with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refinance debts for more than 40,000 million dollars.

On the other hand, experts expect the GDP in Argentina to grow by 3.6% in 2022, 0.2 percentage points above the previous measurement, and they project that the GDP will increase by 1% in 2023, 0.5 percentage points. below the percentage forecast the previous month.

In this case, the market projections do not differ from the agreement with the IMF, which foresees that Argentina’s GDP, which rose 10.2% last year, will increase this year between 3.5 and 4.5%, according to the IMF.

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In addition, for December 2022, experts project a nominal exchange rate of 170.11 pesos per US dollar, compared to a value of 141.38 pesos per dollar at the close of this Friday in the official wholesale market of Argentina.

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