Carlos Cerezo (Belgravia Capital): “We are at the gates of a recession”

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However, Cerezo has highlighted that profits have not yet fallen, in fact, they have been revised upwards… “but it has been above all due to the upward revision of the sectors related to ‘commodities’: energy, fertilizers, freight maritime…”. 

Even so, he stressed that “the European stock market is quite cheap”, since it has “a price-earnings ratio (PER) of 11.5% when the historical average is 14%”; the American stock market, on the other hand, “is not so bad”, since “the PER is 16.5% compared to the historical average of 15.5%”.

“You could say that, based on valuation, it is attractive, but we have verified that, in 120 years, the American stock market has never bottomed before the recession started and the recession has not started yet,” he adds, before forecast that we will see “lows lower than we have seen so far in 2022” between the end of this year and the beginning of next year.

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