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Coronavirus infections grew in the last 14 days: infectologists believe that there will be a third wave and affirm that “a hinge month” is coming.

In the last two weeks, the average number of infections of coronavirus in Argentina it began to rise again after four months of decline. The trend is quietly consolidating, while the variant Delta It is gaining ground in a scenario marked by openings and flexibilities, and at the same time that a new wave of infected impacts several European countries.

Cases increased in 10 jurisdictions in the country, including the City and Province of Buenos Aires. Also in Salta, Tucumán, Córdoba, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, La Pampa, Neuquén and Chubut. Chinstraps are still prevalent in the street despite the fact that the Government eliminated the obligation to use them outdoors. However, the return of football with an audience, recitals, the reopening of bowling alleys and massive political events they display contrary postcards: there are crowds with open faces and nobody seems to bother to sustain the care measures.

Coronavirus infections are on the rise: why November can be “a hinge month”

The advance of the vaccination plan (55% of the population already had both doses) caused a significant decrease in the occupation of intensive care beds. In this scenario, and before the arrival of the summer season, infectologists maintain that November “can be a hinge month.”

“What happens in the coming weeks is going to be very important. If the number of cases increases, but at a moderate level, it is possible that we can control the Delta variant very well, unlike what happened in most countries, “he said. Eduardo Lopez a TN.

And he elaborated: “Now we are at an impasse, with a slight increase in cases. However, the Delta variant is increasing over the previous weeks. Around 40% of the cases that are sequenced correspond to Delta, with which there is a risk of greater transmissibility, taking into account that this is one of the characteristics of this variant ”.

Regarding the possibility of a regrowth or a third wave, López replied: “We don’t know. It is clear that there are not a significant number of serious cases, but one must be cautious. You have to continue vaccinating with two doses, vaccinate the boys and think about the people who were vaccinated eight, nine months ago, such as adults over 65 and health personnel, they are going to need an immunization booster ”.

Luis Camera, a member of the Casa Rosada advisory committee, observes that “In recent days, infections have doubled in large cities, which is logical because a wave of the Delta variant has to be expressed. That should happen once the other variants were reduced in their expression through the vaccination plan ”.

And he adds: “It is necessary to continue vaccinating to be able to reach 80% and achieve herd immunity. We are going to have a wave through Delta, but as almost everyone is vaccinated from the age of 3, it will be smaller. If this percentage of the population is not vaccinated, we can have a wave of certain significance in the number of cases, although not in the level of hospitalizations in intensive care. At worst, we can have a wave 10% or 15% of what was the second “.

The infectologists respond: could there be a third wave of infections in Argentina?

Mario Lozano, molecular virologist: “It is very likely that cases will continue to increase due to the Delta variant, but I do not see a scenario of concern because we have a very high vaccination rate, especially in older adults and now children are being vaccinated. Where the Delta variant wreaked havoc in terms of mortality was in countries where there was a very low vaccination rate, five times less than what the country has today ”.

“In other countries where there is not so much mortality but there was a significant increase in cases, like Israel or the United Kingdom, the outbreak was driven by children and adolescents. And here they are starting to get vaccinated ”.

Jorge Geffner, immunologist at Conicet’s COVID unit: “With the increase in the Delta variant added to the easing it is very likely that in the coming weeks let’s have an increase in cases and start a wave whose magnitude today we do not know. On ChileIn five, six weeks the Delta variant displaced the others, became predominant and doubled the number of cases. Here it has already displaced Manaus and Andina as the first variant ”.

“Despite the fact that we have a vaccination plan that has advanced a lot, we will surely have an increase in infections due to the Delta variant and in a scenario of flexibilization of all activities.

Juan Carlos Cisneros, deputy director of the Muñiz Hospital: “The Delta strain is not generating an impact on the number of cases, and less on the level of hospitalizations. Although the cases increase, we continue to decrease in hospitalizations and almost all the pictures that are seen are mild.

From that perspective, I agree with which the openings are deepened, taking into account that the strains that we had to take care of are already inside ”.

Bárbara Broese, Chief of Epidemiology of San Isidro: “The cases have been increasing in accordance with the growing community circulation of the Delta variant and the relaxation of care measures.”

“What we can expect for the next few weeks is that cases continue to increase, as long as do not keep decreasing the testing, because the Delta variant is going to become predominant, with which it will be necessary to closely follow indicators such as bed occupancy to see the real impact of the situation ”.

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