Depressed dollar, ironed rates and price control: the government’s combo for inflation to slow down in July

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The Indec will disseminate this Thursday the data of inflation corresponding to July. In the Government, the voices are replicated that the number will be less than June and that will mark with force one one deceleration from the escalation seen in the first half of the year, when they added more than 25%.

The economists, meanwhile, point to a CPI that it can be 3% or even a few tenths for below for the first time in the last 10 months. Even if they alert for what will come: after the electoral calendar for which they foresee that the regulated prices, today ironed, and the exchange rate start to Get out of the corset.

According to the Market Estimates Survey (REM), prepared by the Central Bank, the main concern of economists is to how prices will take off in the last month of the year and the first two months of 2022.

As a starting point, the consent of the main consulting firms points to 3% inflation in July. Some even place it at 2.8%, the lowest level of the year and not seen since September 2020, the last month of the toughest restrictions due to the pandemic.

To August, private screenings point to 2,7% de IPC, identical variation in September and October and a 2.8% for November. Inflation in 2021, while they are located at 48%, almost 20 points above the original goal that the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, reflected in the Budget.

While, after the elections, they foresee that prices will resume a bullish path and they estimate increases of 3.1% for December and 3.2% for January 2022. This is because economists maintain that the deceleration of inflation is conjunctural and is related with key factors:

  • Dollar ironing: accumulates an 11% rise in the price of the wholesaler or commercial, against more than 20% of the financial options, which were also intervened with greater regulations since mid-July.
  • Regulated corseted: Fuel values ​​rose 34% in the first five months of the year, since when they have been frozen. Added to this is the update of electricity and gas rates lower than one digit.
  • Agreements and controls about food: Care Prices, Super Close, the export stocks for meat and an agreement of frozen values ​​until the elections add to the “decelerator” combo.
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“The reasons for the drop (in the July CPI) will allow us to specify its duration, as well as its sustainability and the changes it could produce within the economy,” synthesized a recent report by the consulting firm Ecolatina.

In this regard, he stated that this factor, added to a brake in the escalation of the international values ​​of commodities and the dollar “under control” will make the rate of inflation passes of 4% per month in the first semester a 3% in the second.

But the consultant warned that “the big problem is that this low will not last, but will become unsustainable under its own weight: When the anchors are forced and arrears accumulate, the dynamics ends up taking its toll sooner rather than later. Consequently, Not only will we have inflation greater than 40% in 2021: it will also be like this in 2022″.

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