The dollar exchange rate It is one of the main concerns of the Government and of the Argentines before the beginning of the new year. While the ruling party ensures that there will not be an abrupt exchange rate jump and projects that the wholesale exchange rate will be worth $ 131.10 by the end of 2022, private estimates amount to $ 161.
Since the beginning of December, the peso began to accelerate its rate of devaluation. The wholesaler, in fact, will end the year above the official projection of Martin Guzman in the Budget, which spoke of $ 102.40.
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Shortly after talking about a new year, there is three unknowns that reign in the foreign exchange market:
- The rhythm who will have the depreciation Of weight.
- The Government’s ability to withstand pressure and manage the devaluation to avoid a sharp jump.
- The exchange scheme requested by the IMF at the time of closing the deal.
In dialogue with TN, four economists to see what they expect to happen with these three axes during the next 12 months.
The official dollar will rise at a faster rate in 2022
Economists agree that the go up monthly of the official dollar in 2022 will be closer to the evolution of the inflation. In that sense, they indicate that in the year that is ending there was an accumulated “backwardness” in the official exchange rate. In the parallels, expectations will be the key.
While the value is still competitive In relation to currencies in the region, experts point out that the Government will have to reclaim ground next year. “It is not very backward or at such low levels, there was a significant drop in our external competitiveness of our products abroad because the official every month climbed two points below inflation”, He pointed Joaquin Waldman, economist of Cedes.
And he added: “We believe that there will be a agreement with the IMF which will require some change in the administration of the exchange rate by the BCRA. It would not allow it to maintain the current rate of real appreciation and that is why it is changing. At some point in the summer there could be a go up a little more important, without it being a jump of 30% or 40%. This is how some of the accelerated appreciations of the real exchange rate were resolved in the past ”.
“The 20% exchange rate delay experienced this year was offset by the rise in prices of commodities. Now, having reached a reasonable floor of the real exchange rate and in a context of normalization of the prices of exportable raw materials, there wouldn’t be much room to keep falling behind the exchange rate, “he said Matías De Luca, economists of LCG.
To its turn, Lorena Giorgio, chief economist of Balances, agreed that, at a minimum, the 2022 devaluation will accompany inflation. However, he did not totally rule out the possibility of an abrupt jump. “A jump is not ruled out discreet similar to that of January 2014, although the Government will use all its resources to avoid an adjustment in the form of a sudden shock. Specifically, we expect an advance in the official exchange rate of around 20% in the first quarter of next year ”, he calculated.
The agreement with the IMF sets the expectations for the official dollar and the parallels
“To avoid an exchange rate jump, the Government needs modify expectations. A year ago the Executive was also in a dire situation, with the gap in three digits, Bookings net losses and the private sector withdrew their deposits in dollars from the local financial system ”, recalled Giorgio.
And he added: “However, the announcement of a contract tax policy (the 4th IFE was not granted), the reduction in the monetary issue, the beginning of negotiations for the debt with the IMF and the intervention of the BCRA in the financial market through bonds contributed to appease the expectations of depreciation. However, the main element that reversed expectations was the notable improvement in the international prices of commodities”.
In the same line it was manifested Martín Vauthier, economist of Anker Latinoamericanto. “The official exchange rate is going to be closely linked to the dynamics of expectations. For example, if there is any signal about the agreement with the IMF, taking into account that the main objective of that agreement is going to be that the Central Bank can begin to accumulate reserves“, Held.
And he added: “The most important thing will be a fall in the exchange rate gap. I believe that it should fall for the good, with an improvement in expectations and a drop in financial dollars, rather than with a sharp or discreet jump in the official exchange rate ”.
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“Currently, the counted with liquidation is expensive. If the macroeconomy is ordered, hand in hand with an agreement with the fund, and expectations are aligned, it could reduce its increase. Therefore, the current 100% gap could diminish, although it will continue to be significant, since the imbalances that the economy presents prevail, it requires adjustments and not all of them will occur immediately, ”De Luca agreed.
For Giorgio, reversing the battle of expectations is not impossible, although in 2022 international prices will not help. “It will be key that the Government clear the doubts from governability and that it implements an economic policy that leads to stabilizing the macroeconomy. A key step in that direction is to clear the uncertainty surrounding debt to the IMF and the Paris Club. It would be a first step in a long way ”.