Fundamental daily forecast of natural gas prices

By: MRT Desk

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Natural gas price forecast - Gas moves shortly before the weekend

Natural gas futures ended higher on Friday, posting their sixth consecutive close on the rise thanks to increased demand for refrigeration and bringing the market to the psychological level of $ 4.00 for the first time in nearly three years.

According to Natural Gas Intelligence what happened on Friday was that the American and European weather models showed trends in opposite directions for the period of the first week of August, with the American data set increasing the expectations of heat and the European data changing more cold, which created some uncertainty about demand levels in early August.

However, for the week that is about to start, it is expected that the high pressures will spread over more territories, which will lead to high highs in much of the country, according to NGI, and therefore could lead to a greater rebound in prices. of gas prices in cash and futures in the last week of July.

On Friday, September natural gas futures settled at $ 4.042, up $ 0.060 or 1.51%.

Bespoke Services added this, “There is still a lot of heat on the way … including the hottest part of the summer in Texas.”

The EIA on Thursday reported a 49 Bcf increase in natural gas reserves for the week ended July 16, above the 40 Bcf increase forecast by leading analysts.

Let’s remember the previous forecasts to better understand the meaning of the real data. Before the release of the report, NGI reported that a Reuters poll of analysts returned estimates ranging from 30 to 60 Bcf, with an average injection of 45 Bcf. A Bloomberg poll found an average injection of 43 Bcf, with estimates ranging from 30 Bcf to 48 Bcf. Finally, the NGI model foresaw an injection of 30 Bcf.

We must also remember that the EIA figure was higher than the 38 Bcf increase in the same period of the previous year and the five-year average injection of 36 Bcf.

Total reserves now stand at 2.678 trillion cubic feet, down 532 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 176 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, according to the government.

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