The International Grains Council (ICC) forecast on Thursday that global production of corn It will increase to 1,202 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season, compared to 1,150 million in the previous season.
The intergovernmental body, which publishes its first full set of projections for 2023/24, forecasts that global production of wheat fell to 787 million tonnes, compared with 801 million tonnes in the previous season.
Cereal consumption would increase from 2,261 million tonnes to 2,288 million tonnes, leading to a slight decrease in remaining stocks from 586 million tonnes to 580 million tonnes.
“Driven by an expected maize recovery, world cereal production is expected to increase by 1% … While this would boost global supply, the comparatively higher increase in consumption could translate into a decline in end-of-season stocks,” the CIC said.
The expected increase in maize production in the United States (377.7 million tonnes versus 348.8 million), Argentina (61.0 million versus 46.0 million) and the European Union (64.9 million versus 52.1 million) will more than offset the expected decline in Ukraine (21.0 million versus 27.0 million).
World maize consumption would stand at 1,198 million tonnes in 2023/24, resulting in a slight increase in stocks from 256 million tonnes to 261 million tonnes.
The expected decline in wheat production is largely due to the decline in prospects in the Black Sea region: the projection for the Russian harvest was reduced from 95.4 million tonnes to 82.8 million tonnes and the Ukrainian from 25.2 million to 20.2 million.
Higher harvests are expected in the United States (51.4 million vs. 44.9 million) and Argentina (19.0 million vs. 12.0 million).
World wheat consumption would stand at 794 million tonnes in 2023/24, causing stocks to decline from 286 million tonnes to 279 million tonnes.