Markets start the year pending China, unemployment, inflation and PMI

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The markets will open their doors to 2023 tomorrow, Monday, in a week in which they will continue to be aware of the influence on the economy of the increase in covid cases in China, unemployment data in Spain, inflation in Germany and leading manufacturing PMI indicators in the main economies of the euro area.

According to Banco BIG analyst José Luis Herrera, attention this week will be focused on the PMI, the indices of purchasing sectors of the manufacturing sector, which is an indicator to measure the level of activity of the private sector.

In this regard, he has said that any reading above 50 points could indicate an overheating of the economy that would favor a rate hike by central banks.

In Europe, the first week of the year begins with the publication in Spain of the registered unemployment figures for the month of December, as well as with the final data of the leading indicators of manufacturing PMIs of the main economies of the euro area.

In this sense, according to analysts at Singular Bank, the preliminary reading of the European monetary zone of 47.8 points is expected to be confirmed, remaining in contraction territory for the sixth consecutive month.

On Monday the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone will be published, in Spain, Italy, France and Germany, while on Tuesday the unemployment in Germany and the manufacturing PMI of the United Kingdom will be published, in addition to German inflation.

On Wednesday, the consumer confidence data of France will be known, and the CPI, data that will also be released in Germany.

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On Thursday, Germany’s exports, imports and trade balance, as well as Italy’s services PMI and CPI, will be released.

The week will end with the publication by the European Commission of the final result of the December consumer confidence survey.

In the US, the focus this week will be the employment report for December and the minutes of the Fed corresponding to the last meeting on December 14, in which a half-point increase in the official interest rate was decided and in which the president of the institution, Jerome Powell, anticipated further increases in interest rates in the future and ruled out that there will be a recession.

Thus, on Tuesday 3, at 3:45 p.m., the S&S manufacturing PMI will be published, followed on Wednesday by the MBA mortgage application index.

After the leading manufacturing indicators, the data of the services sector will be known on Thursday 4 with the PMI of services of S & and on day 5 with the non-manufacturing ISM.

Also this week, the official employment report for December will be released, which projects a moderation in job creation and the stabilization of the unemployment rate at 3.7% of the active population, according to analysts.

In this sense, Herrera has pointed out that the employment data is “very important” because it causes many movements and volatility in the markets.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the macroeconomic agenda will also have as its most relevant references the leading indicators of activity in December, at a juncture in which the elimination of covid-19 restrictions in the Chinese economy and the deterioration of its epidemiological situation continue to generate high uncertainty.

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On Tuesday, the Caixin manufacturing PMI for December will be published, for which the market consensus expects it to accentuate its contraction, falling back to 49.2 points.

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