“The forces that really move the markets every year are very few, but identifying them correctly determines 90% of the results. And obviously it is not easy. Among other things because they are changing, “explains Víctor Alvargonzález, director of strategy and founding partner of the independent advisory firm Nextep Finance.
According to Alvargonzález, in 2008 it was the financial crisis, in 2009 the action of the Federal Reserve, in 2018 the trade conflict between the US and China, in 2020 the pandemic, in 2021 the action of the Fed and the arrival of the vaccine and in 2022 inflation, to give some examples.
Here’s the full analysis:
For Nextep’s strategy department, in 2023 there will be two forces that move the market: inflation and the FOMO effect.
Inflation in the opposite direction to 2022, that is, by lowering inflation the aggressiveness of the Federal Reserve will be reduced, which will generate a strong relief in the stock markets.
But this time that improvement of the stock markets takes investors totally underweight in equities, with which when the stock market rises there will be the so-called “FOMO effect”, which in English means “Fear Of Missing Out”, whose translation into Spanish would be “fear of missing it”.
