The price of Brent oil could reach $ 100 per barrel by 2022, according to a new Bank of America report that you have had access to. TASS, and which lists three reasons for this growth on the demand side and three on the supply side.
Factors in favor
On the one hand, the bank’s analysts highlight the deferred demand after confinement Due to the pandemic, the predominance of private cars over other types of transport, as well as teleworking, which, they estimate, could lead to a “work-from-car” format and increase the distances that people travel in a private car.
On the other hand, Bank of America cites an increase in company spending to achieve the goals of the Paris climate agreement, a more active role for investors in the energy sector, as well as increasing public pressure to reduce gas emissions. greenhouse effect.
The prognosis and risks
Overall, Bank of America analysts raised their 2021 oil price forecast from $ 60 to $ 68 a barrel amid the demand recovery driven by the vaccination process against covid-19. The forecast was also driven by growth in global mobility, supply constraints, and compliance with the OPEC + agreement. The forecast for 2022 has been raised by $ 15 to $ 75 per barrel, while in 2023, analysts expect oil to reach $ 65 per barrel.
At the same time, experts do not rule out the risks of a fall in prices in the event of the irruption of Iranian oil on the market in the second half of 2021, acceleration of mutations of the coronavirus and a slowdown in the vaccination process. Finally, the bank does not exclude the scenario of a breach of the terms of the OPEC + agreement, which could undermine the current growth trajectory of prices.
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