OPEC + foresees in its base scenario a market deficit of 300,000 bpd in 2023

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DUBAI, Sept 1 (Reuters) – OPEC+’s Joint Technical Committee (JTC) forecasts an oil market deficit of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 under its baseline scenario, according to a document. seen by Reuters on Thursday.

The JTC, which met on Wednesday, expects demand to be 400,000 bpd short of supply this year, marking a downward revision of 500,000 bpd after taking into account new production assumptions.

It also sees the deficit widening to 1.8 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the document.

The JTC assessment took into account the lower production of its members for the rest of 2022 and for 2023.

“None of the member countries are expected to produce at levels higher than in July, except for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait,” an OPEC source said. “The figures have taken that into account.”

The JTC advises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, a group known collectively as OPEC+, on market fundamentals.

Many OPEC and OPEC+ producers lack the capacity to increase production due to insufficient investment in oil fields and Western sanctions against Iran, Venezuela and Russia. The production of the countries that are part of the agreement was almost 3 million bpd below the quota in July.

The committee said the market would be tight for the rest of the year and for 2023, adding that preliminary data shows OECD commercial oil stocks will remain below the five-year average for the rest of 2022 and for 2023.

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