Bank of Spain, International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Commission, OECD, Funcas, Chamber of Commerce, Caixabank, BBVA, CEOE, Institute of Economic Studies (IEE), AIReF, JP Morgan, College of Economists, Banco Santander, Repsol, Mapfre, Cemex, Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI), Axesor, Loyola University, Meytis, Ceprede, Icade, Equipo Economico, the consulting firm PVC -a survey of executives and economists-, Oxford Economics, Rey Juan Carlos University and Intermoney.
These are the almost 30 national and international organizations that have revised down their economic forecasts for Spain for 2021 and 2022, while the Government of Pedro Sanchez it alone defends its estimates -6.5% rise in GDP this year, and 7% next year- and boasts of being one of the fastest growing economies in Europe. Far from making a modification of its accounts or admitting the economic situation of the country, the Executive continues in its thirteen, sending a bad signal to the markets.
The Bank of Spain has been the last to join the long list of national and international organizations, companies, banks and universities that estimate the increase in GDP this year between 4.5% and 5.5%. The institution now foresees a growth this year of 4.5%, in line with the European Commission, which represents a loss of wealth of 11.00 billion over the forecast. The presiding body Pablo Hernandez de Cos has also warned in its report, published this Friday, that the Spanish economy is the one that less fast is recovering from the euro zone.
Spanish GDP is still 6.6 points below GDP of the fourth quarter of 2019, compared to 0.3 points of the European average. The Bank of Spain already foresees that the pre-pandemic level will not be reached until the first quarter of 2023, the furthest behind in Europe despite the fact that the 2020 sinking was the largest. The United States has already recovered in the third quarter of this year the pre-covid level.
The Minister of Finance, Maria Jesus MonteroHe pointed out a few weeks ago that it made no sense to modify the forecasts with one month left to finish the year. Meanwhile, Montero, the vice president of Economic Affairs, Nadia Calvin, and the President of the Government himself, Pedro Sanchez, insist that “Spain is growing strongly” and that “the recovery is solid and robust.”
None of this indicates the Bank of Spain, which foresees a GDP growth in this fourth quarter of 1.6%, lower than the previous quarter. It also warns that inflation will exceed the 2021 average in 2022, above 3.5%, which will have implications for consumption and, perhaps, the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
In addition, the agency focuses on the pandemic, which could expand again and cause restrictions, and continue to hit international tourism that arrives in Spain, one of the bases of the national GDP.