The global semiconductor market will decline by 5.3% in 2023 compared to 2022, dragged down by the fall in memories, in a year in which, predictably, the sector will leave behind the shortages that have marked the technology or automotive industries since the coronavirus pandemic.
The semiconductor market will fall by 5.3% in 2023, a figure that moderates to 0.3% if memories are excluded, due to weakening demand and the rapid erosion of storage unit prices to maintain order rates, according to consultancy IDC.
In the case of the revenues of companies in the sector, the consultancy Gartner considers that they will fall by 3.6% in 2023, to 561,240 million euros (596,000 million dollars), while the organization World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) figures the fall of the market at 4.1%, to 524,500 million (557,000 million dollars).
Like IDC, these organizations agree that the fall in the market will be caused by the decline in the memory segment, although they also point to the increase in inflation, the contraction of the economy and the weakening of demand as causes of this decline.
The semiconductor market will leave behind the growth it experienced last year.
In fact, Gartner estimated before the end of the year at 4% the increase in revenues of this sector in 2022, to 582,000 million (618,000 million dollars), while WSTS assured that the turnover would rise to 546,200 million (580,000 million dollars), 4.4% more than in 2021.
All this despite a fourth quarter of the year in which the market has already begun to contract, according to the monthly barometer of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), which shows that semiconductor revenues fell by 0.5% and 0.1% year-on-year in September and October, the last of which offers data.
In any case, these figures are far from the growth that the market experienced in 2021, when the worldwide revenues of semiconductor companies increased by 26.3%, to 560,250 million (594,952 million dollars), according to Gartner.
END OF SCARCITY
After several years in which the mismatch between the supply and demand of semiconductors has impacted several industries, the consulting firm IDC expects the shortage of chips to end during the first quarter of 2023 after a 2022 in which the problems have been progressively decreasing.
The consultancy believes that “most serious problems” will be controlled in 2023, although it points out that mature node process technology “will continue to experience stresses.”
An opinion shared by the consultancy Counterpoint Research, which believes that the shortage of semiconductors globally decreased “significantly” during the second half of 2022 due to increased wafer production and supplier diversification.
FIRST CALLS FOR THE PERTE CHIP
A year for the sector that, in the case of Spain, will be marked by the development of the Strategic Project for the Recovery and Economic Transformation (PERTE) of microelectronics and semiconductors, known as Perte Chip, which was approved in May 2022 and includes a public investment of 12,250 million until 2027.
In this regard, the Government plans to launch the first calls for aid in the first half of 2023, although consultations and Expressions of Interest will be launched previously to limit the scope of action.
This 2023, in which the General State Budget (PGE) includes more than 1,250 million for its development, the Executive will transfer 800 million in the form of a loan to Semys, the public company of the State Society of Industrial Participations (SEPI) to manage the Perte; and 450 million to companies, companies, public entities, foundations and autonomous communities.