Sovecon raises its wheat harvest forecast in Russia

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Consulting firm Sovecon on Thursday raised its forecast for Russia’s 2022 wheat harvest to 100 million tonnes from 94.7 million tonnes, on high spring wheat yields.

Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, supplying the grain primarily to the Middle East and Africa. Spring wheat usually accounts for 30% of the country’s total harvest.

“The Russian wheat harvest is set to top the previous record of 86.0 million tons (from 2020) by 14 million tonnes thanks to near-ideal weather for winter wheat and good weather for spring wheat,” said Andrey Sizov, head of Sovecon, in a note.

“However, the export campaign is still far behind the average pace,” he added.

Sovecon forecasts that Russian exports from July to September will stand at 10.2 million tons, 14% less than the five-year average for these months of the campaign, in a context of a strong ruble and the state tax on exports. foreign sales.

The consultancy’s forecast for production of all grains rose to 151.4 million tonnes from 142.6 million tonnes, Sovecon said, adding that its estimate is based on acreage controlled by Russia as of the start of 2022.

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