soy does not show a definite trend

By Agrositio. 02/12/2021 | 17:12

?? The fear of covid outbreaks, the movement of funds and the weather in the southern hemisphere mark the pulse of the market.

?? Oil World ?? November: further cuts in US production and exports and increases in milling. Estimates for Brazil were cut.

?? FOB Argentina: without a clear trend, it continues to be decoupled from the international level.

?? National commercialization 2021/22: purchases of the complex are located 24% below the same date of the previous year.

?? BCP region: crop condition is very good.

International situation

Like the USDA, Oil World cut the US production estimate in its latest report. It also cut exports and, given increases in industry margins, increased milling. These changes generated a new cut in the final stock of the northern country. The main monthly variations are detailed below, in global terms:

?? Production: no significant changes. The cuts for the US (-0.6 M Tn) and Brazil (-0.8 M Tn) stand out.

?? Grinding: +1.1 M Tn. There were increases for the US (+0.6 M Tn) and Brazil (+0.3 M Tn).

?? Exports: -2 M Tn. The cuts for the US and Brazil were 0.5 M Tn and 0.4 M Tn, respectively. OW highlights that exports in November and December from Brazil will be higher than expected given the greater competitiveness with respect to the US Even so, the northern country will be the main supplier to China in these months. ?? Imports: -1.5 M Tn. For China, the reduction was 1 M Tn, to about 98 M Tn. ?? Final stock: -1 M Tn. For the US, the cut was 1 M Tn, down to 10.7 M.

Argentina situation

For our country, OW made no changes to the production estimate. Milling increased by 60,000 tons, while cutting grain exports by 0.3 million tons.

For the 2021/22 campaign, OW maintains its production estimate at 45.5 M Tn, which would imply a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. Grinding increased by just 60,000 Tn, to about 41.7 M Tn. For their part, bean exports were cut by 0.3 M Tn, to a modest 4.2 M Tn.

Regarding soybean oil, OW increased monthly production by 10,000 Tn, to about 8.3 M Tn (+ 4.3% yoy), while maintaining the estimate of exports at 6.5 M Tn (+4 , 3% ai). For flour, the monthly increase in the production projection reached 57,000 Tn, to 31.4 M Tn (+ 3.9% yoy), while exports increased by 0.1 M Tn to about 29.5 M Tn (+ 3.9% ai). Thus, Argentina would have a participation in global flour and oil exports of 41.6 and 47.8%, respectively.

National campaign ?? Sowing advance

?? At the national level, sowing exceeds 46.3% of the projected area of ​​16.5 M Ha (-2.4% yoy) (BC-2/12). ?? The area destined to oilseed in the 45 districts of the BCP’s area of ​​influence would decrease by 2% year-on-year, reaching 2.58 M Ha. Hand in hand with Agrotour, an acceleration could be seen in the collection of batches of fines for lead to second soybeans. The last registered precipitations accelerated the process.

Markets

Although soybeans have lost ground in Chicago in recent weeks due to multiple factors, in recent days this trend seems to be beginning to reverse. Among the factors that guide the market are: the fear of outbreaks of covid that affect the price of oil and that of oils, the movement of funds and the outlook for Brazil.

At the local level, although the FOB does not show a clear trend, it continues to be decoupled from the international level.

The Siogranos Monitor Report, which indicates the price and commercial modality of the registered contracts, registered the following average values, at 1/12, camera condition: a) Rosario Norte, US $ 355 / tn; b) Rosario Sur, U $ S / tn 342.5; c) Quequén, U $ S / tn 320 and d) Bahía Blanca, U $ S / tn 333. For the factory, the following was averaged on the same day: a) Rosario Norte, U $ S / tn 346.7; b) Rosario Sur, U $ S / tn 345.6; c) Quequén, U $ S / tn 320 and d) Bahía Blanca, U $ S / tn 32

Source: Bahía Blanca Cereal and Products Exchange

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