The credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings considers that the war in Ukraine and the risk of interruption of gas supply by Russia “is accelerating” Europe’s shift towards renewable energies and greener gases.
In a report that analyzes the prospects for the global energy market, the credit rating agency assures that these gases could represent 20% of European gas demand by 2030, provided that the European Union (EU) achieves its objectives REPowerEU.
According to S&P, gas demand will increase globally until 2030, driven by Asia, with stable growth in the United States (USA) and still “very uncertain” in Europe.
Regarding renewable energy, S&P considers that its weight will increase to 60% of energy generation in Europe by 2030 and will approach 40% in the US and China.
The credit rating agency believes that security of supply considerations support an accelerated deployment of renewables, especially in Europe, while backup facilities could play an increasing role in coming decades.
In the case of oil , S&P believes that demand will continue to grow in the next decade to reach a maximum of 112 million barrels per day and will continue to exceed 87 barrels per day by 2040, which represents a decrease of 1.5% per year on average. .
If demand declines further, S&P believes credit risks to the sector will be partially mitigated by OPEC’s ability to tighten supply and by the annual natural decline of around 5% in oil fields.
Regarding nuclear, China will double the participation of this energy in its energy mix by 2035 to almost 10%, while the US and Europe will reduce it to 15%, for which S&P considers that new nuclear investments are of high risk.
Lastly, S&P expects thermal coal demand to peak in 2024 and begin to decline after that year as it will be replaced by renewables, especially in Europe and the US.