Strategie Grains cuts EU sunflower seed forecast, raises estimate for rapeseed

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Strategie Grains cut its forecasts for this year’s European Union sunflower and soybean crops , citing damage from recent hot and dry weather, while raising its outlook for rapeseed thanks to to a better-than-expected harvest.

In an article on oilseeds, the consultant lowered its forecast for the EU sunflower seed harvest by almost 1.2 million tons, to 9.17 million tons, 11.3% less than last year, despite the strong increase in the sown area.

As for soybeans, the consultancy lowered its EU production forecast for 2022 to 2.49 million tonnes from 2.78 million, 7.3% below last year’s level.

“For sunflower seed and soybeans…extremely hot and dry weather in recent weeks has reduced yield potentials in most major European producing countries,” the consultancy said.

Crop forecasting experts have repeatedly lowered forecasts for EU summer crops, including maize , as worsening drought and successive heat waves in major producing countries such as France, Romania and Hungary have put the plants to the test during the crucial growth period.

In the case of rapeseed, the EU’s main oilseed crop, Strategie Grains raised its estimate for this year’s harvest to 19.15 million tonnes, from a previously forecast 18.47 million tonnes, which is a 12.7% more than last year.

“Rapeseed rape has enjoyed good growing conditions this season in most European production areas and harvest results are even better than expected,” Strategie Grains said.

On the demand side, the consulting firm raised its forecasts for rapeseed and sunseed imports, basing its information on the dynamism of Ukrainian exports by land and expectations that sunseed exports will benefit from the market. of maritime transport within the framework of the grain export plan sponsored by the UN.

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The EU rapeseed balance sheet is expected to be in balance at the end of the season, at a time when prospects for sunflower seeds are tight, he added.

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