Support for Harris Grows Among Certain Likely Voters: POLL

Election campaigning often occurs behind the scenes, as candidates work diligently to identify potential supporters and ensure their participation in the electoral process. With absentee voting underway, an initial analysis reveals some noteworthy trends among the electorate.

Recent polling data shows that Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over Donald Trump, leading by 4 percentage points at 50% to Trump’s 46% among all adults and registered voters. Among likely voters, this lead increases to 6 percentage points, with Harris at 52% compared to Trump’s 46%. While these figures are closely aligned, a deeper look highlights a shift towards Harris in specific demographic groups, particularly among younger voters, younger women, and Black voters.

An analysis conducted for ABC News by Langer Research Associates indicates that among adults under 40, Harris’s support rises from 54% of all such adults to 64% of those identified as likely voters. Conversely, Trump’s support diminishes from 42% to 33% within the same age group.

The notable shift towards Harris is primarily driven by women. Support for Harris among women under 40 increases from 60% to 73% among likely voters. In contrast, Trump’s backing drops from 35% to 24% among the same demographic.

Among Black voters, Harris enjoys an impressive 82% support, which escalates to 93% among those likely to vote. Trump’s support, however, decreases from 15% to 7% among likely Black voters. Additionally, Harris sees gains among liberal voters as well.

On the other hand, movements in Trump’s favor do not show statistical significance within any particular group. His highest support level appears among those aged 50 to 64, where he garners 52% of all adults and 56% among likely voters. He also sees a modest rise in support among conservatives and non-college-degree holders.

Additionally, it is essential to consider not only the levels of support within each demographic but also the populations’ sizes. For instance, Harris is ahead of Trump by 23 points among likely voters with four-year degrees, with her support at 60% compared to Trump’s 37%. This demographic also constitutes 45% of likely voters, outpacing the general population’s representation of only 35%.

Trump counters with a 10-point advantage among white voters, who represent 61% of all adults but rise to 71% among likely voters. He benefits from having a relatively lower proportion of adults under 40 participating in the likely voter category, which comprises 36% of all adults versus only 25% of likely voters.

Ultimately, the combination of group sizes and shifting preferences keeps the race tightly contested. The term “likely voters” refers to individuals expressing certainty about their intention to vote, and motivating these individuals to follow through will be crucial for both campaigns as they move forward in the election cycle.

Source: ABC News