Although the last census in China found population growth, the number of people living in the Asian giant could be cut in half in the next 45 years. This is how the authors of a study from Xi’an Jiaotong University argue published this September in the Journal of Xian University of Finance and Economics, aforementioned por the South China Morning Post.
The estimates were based on the fertility rate of 1.3, an index documented during the aforementioned census that is far below replacement level of 2.1, necessary to maintain a stable population.
“If the fertility rate drops to 1, in 29 years the population of our country will be reduced by half“, predicted the specialists on an even worse projection.
The scientists pointed out that the causes of the trend are due to economic factors, as well as the scarcity of public aid to support motherhood and care.
On the other hand, the investigation revealed that the number of individuals over 60 years it exceeded the number of children for the first time in history (18% versus 17% respectively). In this regard, the specialists predicted that the scenario of a rapid descent demographic due to the decrease in women of childbearing age.
Statistics don’t lie
The findings of the investigation confirm what was evidenced in the demographic census published by the China Bureau of Statistics in May: the population grew in 2020 and reached 1,412 million, but Chinese women gave birth just 12 million babies last year, which marked an annual decrease of 18% compared to 2019 data.
These results are largely the result of the so-called ‘one child per couple policy’ that was repealed in 2016 with the government approval that authorized having up to two children in a family.
This policy, in turn, is not in force, as the statistical data of the last census is known. The authorities relaxed it at the end of May this year, allowing married couples have up to three children.