This will be the Spanish real estate market in 2022: “There will be greater caution”

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The Spanish real estate market has gained momentum during 2021 and it is expected that next year it will continue its upward path. Industry experts agree that the evolution of the pandemic will set the pace for the different segments. In this sense, Pedro del Pozo, director of financial investments at Mutualidad de la Abogacía, explains: “the appearance of ómicron is modifying the investment attitude at the close of the year and it will surely also modify it at the beginning of the year 2022 towards greater caution, which will continue, predictably, until we have data of pandemic improvement “.

However, 2022 is presented as a difficult year for construction, as total costs are expected to increase by 8% during the next twelve months, which limit profit margins of the sector, despite the increase in bid prices, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the main international organization representing real estate professionals, and the General Council of Technical Architecture of Spain (CGATE).

By 2021, the real estate consultancy JLL estimates that total investment in the real estate sector will reach around 12,000 million euros, which represents an increase of 33% compared to the previous year. «We anticipate that in 2022 the upward trend of investment will continue prominently in the residential rental and logistics sectors, ”says Sergio Fernandes, director of the firm’s investor business.

Residential and mortgage market

In the residential segment, it is estimated that housing prices It will rise around 4% in 2022 due to the rise in prices of raw materials and the blocking of international trade, according to a report prepared by CaixaBank, which foresees that 2021 will close with 545,000 purchases, the highest figure since 2008. Likewise, the entity considers that the boom experienced in the real estate sector this year will moderate in 2022, which will place transactions at levels similar to those before the pandemic, around 500.000.

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Regarding the mortgage market, it is estimated that in 2021 there will be more than 400,000 signatures, “as long as in the final stretch of the year a little more than 30,000 new mortgages are added each month. Looking ahead to 2022, the loans will be subject to the workplace and how entities deal with the progressive withdrawal of stimuli by the European Central Bank in the face of inflation, which would raise the Euribor. Without a doubt, the propitious scenario is being created so that fixed mortgages dominate the market », comments the director of Studies of the, Ferran Font.

Retail and hotel market

By 2022 it is estimated that the volume of investment in retail increases by 30% compared to the year that now ends, which will be around 1,150 million euros. According to JLL, there will be a greater number of commercial park transactions (there will be greater investment pressure) and a recovery in the volumes of high street.

According to a report by Cushman & Wakefield, forecasts for the hotel sector pre-summer have worsened and the recovery is expected to be uneven by destination. Bruno Hallé, partner and co-director of Cushman & Wakefield Hospitality in Spain, points out that the managers of several hotel chains “are already looking towards 2023 and Only in very specific destinations is 2022 expected to develop as in the pre-pandemic years”. Specifically, Madrid is the destination in which hoteliers place the most trust since 81% consider that it will recover the tourist rhythm in 2023, while only 37% trust that this will happen in Barcelona. In terms of speed, hoteliers believe that vacation destinations will recover faster, up to 34% believe that optimal figures will already be obtained by 2022.

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Offices and logistics

According to the consulting firm CBRE, the office markets throughout Europe will take a positive momentum in terms of recruitment in the new year, supported by the increase in employment in sectors demanding office space, and which is expected to rise between 1 and 2% in 2022. “Although markets are expected to continue operating below pre-existing activity levels,
pandemic, an aggregate growth in hiring of 20-25% vs 2021 is expected, ”says the firm.

In addition, CBRE foresees that volumes of investment in logistics remain high in 2022 due to the amount of capital directed to the sector. “Logistics assets are expected to continue to be one of the preferred options for investors’ portfolios. As a consequence, competition to acquire both land and the best assets will intensify “, they explain from the consultancy.

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