Tight Race in Georgia: Trump Leads Harris by 2 Points

The race for Georgia’s 16 electoral votes is proving to be exceedingly close. Four years after the state voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in decades, current polling indicates a tight contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Trump holds a narrow lead with 51% support among likely voters, while Harris follows closely with 49%.

A significant factor in Trump’s appeal is economic concerns. Many voters express a belief that his policies, if reinstated in a second term, would lead to improved financial situations. Comparatively, only about a third of voters feel the same about Harris. This sentiment reflects a shift from perceptions during Joe Biden’s presidency, where he faced a larger deficit on this issue.

Inflation remains a pressing concern for Georgian voters, particularly when it comes to rising costs associated with housing. Eighty percent of respondents report that their income has not kept pace with inflation. Additionally, 70% believe that housing in their local areas has become unaffordable. On this specific issue, Harris and Trump are seen as equally capable of addressing housing costs.

In terms of democracy and elections, the lingering effects of the 2020 election are palpable. For many voters, the integrity of democracy is a critical factor influencing their choice in the upcoming election. While economic issues still take precedence, a significant portion of voters express deep concern regarding the functioning of democracy in the near future. This group appears to favor Harris, who is viewed as a champion of electoral fairness.

However, trust in the electoral process is starkly divided along party lines. Democrats are far more confident than Republicans that their votes will be counted accurately. Many Trump supporters continue to entertain unfounded claims of widespread fraud from the last election. Approximately 40% of Trump voters believe that the results of the 2024 election should be challenged if Harris prevails.

The State Election Board’s recent decision to mandate hand counting of ballots alongside machine counts on election night has added to the tension. While most voters recognize that this will delay results, opinions are starkly divided on whether it will enhance accuracy or simply serve to fuel suspicions of fraud. Most Democrats perceive this new rule as a politically motivated tactic aimed at disrupting the election, while Republicans largely view it as a necessary step to ensure security in the electoral process.

Concerns about gun violence have surged, particularly following a devastating school shooting earlier in the year. Many voters, including a considerable number of non-parents, express significant worry about potential gun violence in educational settings. Sixty percent believe that current laws governing gun sales should be tightened. Although Harris holds a slight edge on this issue, neither candidate has successfully convinced a substantial portion of voters that their policies will effectively reduce gun violence.

In regard to abortion, the landscape of public opinion in Georgia is varied. While a majority supports legal abortion in most circumstances, their views are nuanced. Just over 60% advocate for the legality of abortion in most or all cases, including a notable percentage of Republicans. However, fewer than half consider the state’s current law— which bans most abortions after approximately six weeks— to be excessively strict. Furthermore, nearly half of voters feel that pregnancy in Georgia has become increasingly perilous since the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

This sentiment positions Harris significantly ahead among those who believe pregnancy conditions have worsened, as this group predominantly aligns their vote with her. Voter opinions on the candidates’ stances on abortion also diverge, with Democrats largely believing that Trump would aim for a national ban, while Republicans feel he would defer to state decisions.

Voters in the Atlanta metro area and its surrounding suburbs have been pivotal in previous Democratic victories. However, current data reveals that Harris is not garnering the same level of support that Biden received in 2020. While she maintains substantial backing from Black voters, turnout among this demographic is slightly lower compared to the last election cycle. Harris performs notably better among Black women than Black men, and even minor increases in her support might make the election exceedingly competitive.

Republicans also have a clear lead among male voters, while Harris has an advantage among women, resulting in a gender gap reminiscent of past election cycles. With the electorate primarily locked into their choices, turnout will be crucial as the election date approaches.

As mail-in voting begins in Georgia, Democrats are poised to gain a small lead in early participation. Early in-person voting remains favored among many, yet the demographics reveal that Trump appeals strongly to those planning to vote on Election Day. Overall, the upcoming election is shaping up to be a critical battle in Georgia, where both candidates have significant stakes.

Source: CBS News