What Are They and Why Are They Important to Ukraine?

Keir Starmer’s upcoming meeting with Joe Biden at the White House will place the ongoing war in Ukraine front and center, particularly focusing on the anticipated changes regarding the use of long-range Storm Shadow missiles.

This diplomatic encounter comes after a week of significant discussions between UK and US officials, culminating in a visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy to Kyiv on Wednesday.

For months, Ukraine has advocated for the relaxation of restrictions on the deployment of Storm Shadow missiles supplied by Western allies. Until recently, however, Kyiv’s supporters have hesitated to permit broader use of these weapon systems. Although private decisions regarding this subject have already been made, an official announcement has yet to be forthcoming.

The Storm Shadow missiles are capable of striking targets located up to 155 miles (250km) away from their launch points, allowing them to reach deep within Russian territory. They are designed to penetrate fortified installations, demolish aircraft hangars, and deliver precise strikes on high-value targets.

Developed through a collaboration between the UK and France, with Italy involved in manufacturing, these missiles utilize components provided by the US. Consequently, any alterations to usage conditions would require agreement from all four nations, even if they do not directly supply the missiles themselves.

Currently, Ukraine possesses Storm Shadow missiles but is restricted to using them within its own borders. Kyiv has been lobbying for permission to direct these missiles against targets inside Russia, asserting that the restrictions limit its ability to counter missile attacks on its cities and frontline positions originating from Russian territory. Although Ukraine has drones and other missile systems that can reach within Russia, their numbers are insufficient to create a substantial impact, and they face interception issues.

Ukraine has simultaneously employed domestically produced long-range drones to conduct strikes on Moscow and other areas beyond its borders. These operations have shown notable success, with drone attacks recently leading to the shutdown of three airports in the Russian capital and damaging an oil facility near the city.

Throughout the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has expressed concerns about the cautious and incremental support from the Biden administration, arguing that this approach has cost lives and allowed the Kremlin to target Ukrainians more easily.

Historically, the US and its allies have attempted to balance providing Ukraine with necessary military support while avoiding actions that could be perceived as provocative, potentially escalating the conflict into a direct confrontation. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated that any Western decision permitting Ukraine to use longer-range weapons against Russian assets would equate to NATO being “at war” with Russia, heightening the stakes of the ongoing conflict.

The situation has evolved due to several factors. Ukraine has encountered increasing pressure along the frontline and anticipates challenging conditions this winter. Its recent incursion into Kursk last month has changed the discourse surrounding the use of weapons against targets in Russia, demonstrating that Ukraine can effectively alter the dynamics of the conflict.

Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the defense think tank RUSI in London, noted that Ukraine conducted its operation in Kursk without prior consultation with its allies, which shifted discussions around escalation and the implications of employing long-range armaments in Russia.

Additionally, reports indicate that Russia has received a new shipment of ballistic missiles from Iran, influencing strategic calculations in both London and Washington. Ukrainian officials visiting Washington are now expected to present a list of potential long-range targets within Russia, which could contribute to revised perspectives regarding the impact of available targets.

While allowing Ukraine to utilize Storm Shadow missiles against military targets in Russia could theoretically weaken Russia’s capacity to attack Ukraine, the risks involved are considerable. Striking Russian territory might escalate tensions and generate significant civilian casualties, which would be politically problematic for Western nations.

Experts caution that effectively targeting Russian airbases presents a challenge, given their nature and distance from frontline operations. Alternatives, such as ATACMS missiles equipped with cluster bomblets, may provide a more effective solution compared to the non-cluster-armed Storm Shadows.