Will we have a Christmas rally this year? This is what the experts say

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European markets on the rise on Tuesday -Ibex 35 CAC 40, DAX…- after some good macroeconomic data that we are knowing, and pending the statements of central bankers about the possible monetary policy strategies for the December meetings.

On the other hand, the pools of experts on whether we will attend this year (or not) a Christmas rally this year are already beginning.

According to MarketWatch, in theDow Jonesthe period between now and the end of the year marks a historically bullish final stretch for U.S. stocks, especially just before and after Christmas.

The momentum towards a year-end rally in stocks appears to be getting stronger now that theS&P 500has risen 12.6% from its October low, boosted by better-than-expected U.S. inflation data.

According to Admiral Markets, if we look at the behavior of the S&P 500 during the last 5 sessions of the year and the first 2 of the next one in the last 11 Christmases, we see that the general trend during this period is upward. “Although 2014 and 2015 were low years, the average for the period 2010 to 2020 remains positive,” these experts point out.

In Europe, since mid-October, we have seen a significant rebound not only in the Ibex 35, but also in other European and Wall Street markets. “This raises the question of whether in the stock market this year Santa Claus will bring us as a gift a Rally with a continuation of increases that breaks the fear of uncertainty,” they point out in XTB.

These analysts also wonder: “Will the price fall after the gains that have developed since mid-October, creating an opportunity for investors who currently have little or no value in their portfolios and are waiting for the downgrades to start a new bullish wave?”

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At the business level, there are doubts. “As we always point out, at this time of year many listed companies play a large part of their annual results. A poor or worse than expected Christmas campaign would lead to the downward revision of the expectations of results for many companies, which in turn would penalize their theoretical valuations and the behavior of their shares on the stock market, “they point out in Link Securities.

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