Betting Odds Split Evenly Between Harris and Trump

The upcoming presidential election is just 63 days away, and betting odds reflect a closely contested race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Currently, both candidates are tied with odds of -110 according to Covers, marking a significant moment in electoral predictions.

This positioning is noteworthy because it reveals that Harris has the narrowest lead over Trump of any recent Democratic nominee at this stage of the election cycle. For context, Hillary Clinton had much stronger odds at the same time in the previous election, sitting at -323, only to ultimately lose the race.

While oddsmakers in the U.S. face legal restrictions, the U.K. betting exchange Betfair favors Harris slightly over Trump, maintaining odds of +112 for Harris compared to -102 for Trump. Early on, following the Harris-Walz ticket announcement, bettors showed a marked preference for the vice president. However, this excitement has cooled in the recent weeks.

The odds as of now depict a statistical tie, which is somewhat narrower than the slight lead indicated by recent polling data. A poll conducted by USA TODAY and Suffolk University indicates that Harris leads Trump nationally by a margin of 48% to 43%. This represents an eight-point swing from earlier in June when President Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee.

This shift in support appears to stem from elements of the traditional Democratic coalition reinforcing their allegiance, particularly after the recent Democratic National Convention. Young voters aged 18 to 34, for example, switched support from Trump by 11 points to backing Harris by 13 points, landing at 49%-36% in favor of Harris.

Moreover, the Hispanic vote shifted significantly; transitioning from a two-point Trump advantage to a 16-point Harris lead, with current support at 53%-37%. Likewise, support among Black voters moved dramatically from backing Biden by 47 points to Harris, who now garners 64% of their support compared to Trump’s 12%.

Voters with incomes under $20,000 show a similar trend, moving from supporting Trump by three points to backing Harris by 23 points, resulting in a new support level of 58%-35% for her.

Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll mirrors these findings, showing Harris leading Trump 45% to 41% among registered voters, with a notable 13-point advantage among women and Hispanic voters. A Wall Street Journal poll also echoed this sentiment, with Harris ahead 48%-47% in a direct matchup and 47%-45% when factoring in alternative candidates.

Late Thursday, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released further data indicating that Harris is either leading or statistically tied in critical battleground states across the Midwest and Sun Belt. A Fox News poll of battleground states corroborated these findings, showing a slight advantage for Democrats in many of those states.

The breakdown of this Fox News poll reveals tightly contested numbers: in Arizona, Harris is at 50% to Trump’s 49%; in Georgia, also 50% for Harris against 48% for Trump; similar results in Nevada show Harris at 50% to Trump’s 48%. Only in North Carolina does Trump hold the lead, 50% to Harris’s 49%.

Historically, betting odds have proven to be relatively accurate—only twice since 1866 has the favored candidate lost, according to reports from nonprofit news organizations. Harris’ odds at this stage, being the narrowest for a Democratic nominee, draw attention. Clinton, on her journey, was at -323 when Biden was at his campaign peak. The consensus showcases the unpredictable nature of election outcomes, bringing to mind the iconic upset of Harry Truman, who defied eight-to-one odds in 1948 by besting Thomas Dewey.

The tight race between Harris and Trump may suggest a highly competitive environment leading up to Election Day, though recent polling trends could indicate a shift in voter sentiment favoring the Vice President. As both candidates prepare for the final stretch, the stakes remain higher than ever for their respective campaigns.