Can Solo Nominations Win? Examining Robert Downey Jr. and Maya Rudolph

What do Robert Downey Jr., Idris Elba, Lily Gladstone, and Maya Rudolph have in common?

These four stars are not only nominees at this year’s Primetime Emmy Awards but are also the sole representatives of their respective series: Downey for “The Sympathizer,” Elba for “Hijack,” Gladstone for “Under the Bridge,” and Rudolph for “Loot.” While each has a shot at winning, history shows that it’s rare for someone to take home an Emmy when their show has no other nominations.

Over the past four decades, only six actors have won an Emmy as the sole nominee from their show: Louie Anderson for “Baskets” in 2016, Richard Kiley for “A Year in the Life” in 1987, Regina King for “Seven Seconds” in 2018, Helen Mirren for “Prime Suspect: The Scent of Darkness” in 1996, Tatiana Maslany for “Orphan Black” in 2016, and Mark Ruffalo for “I Know This Much Is True” in 2020.

These wins were influenced by various factors, including the COVID pandemic, past Emmy triumphs, and the deep respect each actor commands within the industry. So, how might this year’s solo nominees fare?

Downey, fresh off his Oscar win for “Oppenheimer,” could make history if he wins. He would become the first man and only the third actor ever to win an Oscar and an Emmy in the same year, following Helen Hunt and Helen Mirren. Though many expected more nods for HBO/Max’s “The Sympathizer” in technical categories, Downey Jr. is strongly favored by pundits to garner his first win 23 years after his initial nomination for “Ally McBeal.” However, he faces tough competition from Jonathan Bailey for “Fellow Travelers” and the late Treat Williams for “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans.”

As we’ve seen, the Emmys often reward the same series in multiple categories, which has resulted in big sweeps for shows like “Succession,” “The Bear,” and “Beef.” This trend makes it challenging for a sole nominee to secure a win. Nevertheless, Downey’s Marvel peer, Mark Ruffalo, did it in 2020 with his Emmy win. The pandemic years, however, have made predicting future outcomes more difficult.

Elba’s nomination for “Hijack” surprised many. This marks his sixth career nod at the Emmys. In the Apple TV+ thriller, Elba plays a corporate business negotiator trying to resolve a hijacking crisis aboard a lengthy flight. Despite his talent, Elba faces tough competition from frontrunner Hiroyuki Sanada for “Shōgun” and potential spoilers Gary Oldman for “Slow Horses” and Dominic West for “The Crown.” If Elba wins, it would be one of the biggest upsets in Emmy history.

Rudolph is the most nominated actor at this year’s ceremony with four total nominations, including for her work on “Big Mouth” and “Saturday Night Live.” Her first lead comedy actress nod comes for “Loot,” a show now in its second season. Despite her past Emmy successes with five career wins, she faces stiff competition from Quinta Brunson for “Abbott Elementary,” Ayo Edebiri for “The Bear,” and Jean Smart for “Hacks.” Notably, a lead comedy actress winner has never been the sole nominee for her show in Emmy history, making this a challenging feat to overcome.

Lily Gladstone, following her first Oscar nomination for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” adds an Emmy nod to her list of accolades. In “Under the Bridge,” she plays a police officer working to solve a brutal murder in Hulu’s true crime drama. Gladstone, along with fellow nominee Kali Reis for “True Detective: Night Country,” has already made history as the first Indigenous woman nominated for acting at the Emmys. However, “Baby Reindeer,” with nominees Nava Mau and frontrunner Jessica Gunning, has strong momentum and is also favored to win the best limited or anthology series trophy.

So, what are the chances that these four solo nominees will take home an Emmy for their acclaimed performances? While their odds may seem slim, particularly given the competition, Downey appears to have the best shot, followed closely by Rudolph. However, as we’ve seen in past shocking ceremonies, anything can happen, and sometimes the underdog gets their moment in the spotlight. Just ask Ewan McGregor about “Halston.”

Final Emmy voting takes place from Aug. 15 to Aug. 26.

Source: Variety