Debate Marks Biden’s End; Trump and Harris Face High Stakes

WASHINGTON − The 2024 presidential election may be significantly influenced by the sole debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which is expected to reshape the race. Following Biden’s lackluster performance in that debate, he made the decision to withdraw from the race, allowing Kamala Harris to step in as the Democratic nominee.

This week, the second debate in the presidential race will take place, featuring Harris facing off against Trump. With only two months remaining until Election Day, both candidates have a lot on the line. Current polls indicate a tight competition, underscoring the importance of the upcoming debate.

For Harris, the debate in Philadelphia presents a vital opportunity to establish her presence against Trump and connect with voters who may not yet be familiar with her. Conversely, Trump will aim to define Harris by his own standards and reclaim some of the momentum he lost during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

In such a close race, a strong performance in the debate could provide either candidate with a crucial advantage as the campaign heads into its final stages. Nonetheless, experts caution against expecting another dramatic shift similar to the Biden-Trump face-off on June 27.

David Greenberg, a history professor at Rutgers University and a specialist in presidential debates, commented, “We’re unlikely to witness anything on that level again.”

Despite historical precedents showing that few presidential debates significantly alter the contest, analysts affirm that their impact should not be underestimated. Although Harris has served as Biden’s vice president for nearly four years, polls reveal that many voters remain relatively unfamiliar with her. The debate could serve as a crucial platform for independent and undecided voters seeking information to inform their decisions.

Alan Schroeder, an expert on debates, noted, “Harris is currently on a very positive trajectory, and this debate could be key for her to sustain that momentum.” Given the abbreviated timeline ahead of the election, this debate may carry more significance than typical debate formats. Dustin Carnahan, an associate professor at Michigan State University specializing in political engagement, emphasized the importance of this moment for Harris.

As Harris continues to navigate her campaign after recently stepping in, she faces the pressing task of addressing policy questions that may evoke criticism, making the debate a strategic opportunity to clarify her positions and priorities. “This may mark the end of her initial honeymoon phase with voters,” Carnahan remarked.

On the other side of the stage, Trump enters the debate with a well-established public persona. Voters are not only familiar with him but also have come to expect his unpredictable behavior. Although he has frequently outmaneuvered other Republican candidates in debates, his performance against Democrats has been notably different.

Trump historically underperformed in his three debates against Hillary Clinton in 2016, and although he benefited from Biden’s weak showing during their own debate, it was not due to his own commendable performance. “The challenge for Trump is to maintain a level of decorum and avoid crossing into disrespect when debating a female candidate,” Schroeder advised.

Presidential debates have, at times, showcased pivotal moments in electoral history. For instance, the first-ever televised debate in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon highlighted the powerful impact of appearance on public perception. Kennedy’s polished look contrasted sharply with Nixon’s disheveled appearance, swaying public opinion in Kennedy’s favor.

Other historic debates have similarly altered the trajectory of races. Gerald Ford’s blunder regarding Soviet control of Eastern Europe during his 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter irreparably damaged his candidacy, while Ronald Reagan effectively turned the conversation during his debate with Carter to appeal to voters’ economic concerns, leading to a resounding electoral win.

Recent debates illustrate the ongoing consequences of debate performances, as Al Gore’s perceived negative demeanor helped diminish his lead against George W. Bush in the 2000 election. Rick Perry’s inability to recall vital information during a 2012 GOP debate ultimately led to his withdrawal from the race.

It’s important to note that, while debates are critical, no single debate has had as profound an impact on a candidate’s prospects as the June encounter between Biden and Trump. That event fundamentally shifted the landscape, reinforcing fears about Biden’s capacity to serve another term.

Carnahan concludes, “The stakes are high for both candidates in this upcoming debate, and how they navigate it could be crucial to their campaigns.”

Source: USA TODAY