Diplomacy Prevails as Iran Delays Retaliation Against Israel

In a strategic response to escalating tensions in the Middle East, President Biden has deployed a surge of military resources, including combat aircraft and warships, alongside three key advisers. These include CIA Director Bill Burns, who is currently in the region aiming to defer potential retaliatory actions from Iran and Hezbollah against Israel. The intent is to use this time to establish an “offramp” from a potentially devastating conflict that could involve U.S. forces.

U.S. intelligence suggests that Iran is likely not to disrupt the ongoing cease-fire negotiations in Doha aimed at resolving the conflict between Hamas and Israel. Although these discussions may extend into the weekend, uncertainty remains about how long Iran and its proxies will maintain restraint. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby warned reporters of a potential Iranian attack that could occur “with little or no warning” in the coming days.

Both Iran and Hezbollah have publicly vowed to retaliate for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two weeks ago, as well as for the death of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in July. While Israel has claimed responsibility for Shukr’s assassination through an airstrike, it has not officially acknowledged its role in Haniyeh’s killing, though U.S. officials have confirmed Israeli involvement.

Reports from the region indicate that Iranian leadership is still weighing its options regarding military action. There seems to be a division within the government about whether to follow the precedent set on April 13, when Iran launched a significant attack against Israel, or to opt for a covert intelligence operation instead. Additionally, sources suggest that Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is hesitant to act without a green light from Iran, as he appears to prefer to avoid a larger-scale war with Israel.

Efforts by the U.S. administration aim to minimize the risk of regional escalation. This includes indirect communications with Tehran through intermediaries and outreach to leading politicians in Beirut regarding Hezbollah’s potential actions. Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations recently indicated to CBS News that Hezbollah might broaden its targets during any future conflict, potentially hitting civilian sites in Israel rather than just military installations. As of 2021, the CIA estimated that Hezbollah possesses around 150,000 missiles and rockets capable of overwhelming Israel’s missile defense systems.

During a press briefing in Beirut, U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein emphasized that the Biden administration’s strategy hinges on leveraging a narrow window of opportunity for Israel and Hamas to negotiate a hostage release and cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. This could play a crucial role in preventing conflict from spilling over into Lebanon, where tensions have been high for the past ten months due to border skirmishes with Hezbollah.

In a flurry of diplomatic activity, NSC Director Brett McGurk traveled to Cairo and Doha this week to finalize the details of cease-fire measures. Alongside Burns, discussions in Doha included key figures such as Israel’s Mossad director and leaders from Qatar and Egypt. The U.S. plans to unveil a comprehensive proposal that includes provisions for the release of hostages, a vaccination campaign to combat polio, and the restoration of services such as water and electricity to displaced Palestinians in Gaza, all while working to de-escalate tensions in Lebanon.

As reported by the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, the ongoing conflict has resulted in the tragic death of over 40,000 Palestinians amid the violence of the past ten months.

If diplomatic efforts do not yield the desired results, the U.S. has developed a contingency plan to protect Israel, similar to the defense measures enacted during Iran’s earlier assault in April. During that attack, U.K. military aircraft were deployed to safeguard U.S. and allied forces stationed in Iraq and Syria. Should Iran engage in hostile actions again, the U.K. remains prepared to act in accordance with its previous commitments.

A French government official underscored the importance of diplomacy, stating their government aims to de-escalate tensions in the region while maintaining strong diplomatic and military coordination with the U.S.

Parallel to Doha’s negotiations, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne met with various Lebanese leaders, including those affiliated with Hezbollah, to bolster ongoing diplomatic efforts for peace in the region.

The urgency of discussions in Doha is heightened by their proximity to the Democratic National Convention, emphasizing the Biden administration’s commitment to curbing violence and securing the release of hostages held by Hamas, including five Americans whose fates remain uncertain. Domestic polling reflects a growing concern over the humanitarian crisis, particularly among progressive, Black, Arab, and Muslim American communities, further complicating the administration’s political landscape.

Source: CBS News