Does their likability—or unlikability—really make a difference?

Recent polling data reveals a significant difference in the way voters perceive Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, particularly regarding likability. Voters appear to value personal traits more in Harris than in Trump, which is influencing their voting decisions.

When voters express favorable views about either candidate, they tend to lend their support overwhelmingly to that candidate. However, this pattern changes dramatically when voters express negative feelings. The connection between unlikability and voting behavior is much stronger for Harris compared to Trump. When voters dislike Harris, almost all of them choose not to support her. In contrast, a notable number of voters who do not like Trump still maintain their support for him.

Analysis shows that Harris is perceived more favorably in terms of personal likability. Nevertheless, around fifty percent of voters are dissatisfied with her personal demeanor. Alarmingly, only about 5% of those who express dislike for Harris say they will vote for her. In stark contrast, among the roughly two-thirds of voters who view Trump unfavorably, 21% still plan to support him—a figure that indicates a substantial gap in their personal approval ratings.

This trend is consistent across both male and female demographics. For both groups, the ratio of dislike for Harris is mirrored by lower yet significant backing for Trump among those who hold negative views of him. This indicates that the perception of personal behavior plays a crucial role in voter behavior, but it is more consequential for Harris than it is for Trump.

Furthermore, a notable majority of voters characterize Trump’s speech as insulting, yet more than one-quarter of those voters remain in his corner. Conversely, those voters who feel Harris is insulting express considerably less support, often falling into single-digit percentages.

Overall impressions from the polling suggest most voters find Harris to exhibit more reason and intelligence than Trump when she speaks. Additionally, Harris slightly edges out Trump in clarity of speech. This scenario sheds light on an important aspect of voter behavior: a certain sector appears willing to tolerate negative personal traits in Trump that they do not accept in Harris.

This phenomenon has been observed repeatedly in previous election cycles, indicating a significant degree of tolerance among some voters for Trump’s personal conduct and comments. Such dynamics contribute to the ongoing competitiveness of this presidential race.

The polling data further emphasizes that while both groups of voters prioritize candidate policies, a smaller proportion of Trump’s base considers personal qualities as crucial in their voting decision. Among the Trump supporters who dislike him personally, an even smaller number regard personal traits as a determining factor in their support. This quirk is notable, especially considering the personal traits that typically influence voter decisions.

A majority of Trump supporters who express dissatisfaction with his portrayal still supported him in the previous election. This familiarity enables them to predict outcomes based on his previous behavior, leading many to expect similar conduct in his current campaign.

The survey revealing these insights was conducted on a representative sample of 3,129 registered voters across the United States from September 18 to September 20, 2024. The resulting data was adjusted to reflect demographic factors such as gender, age, race, and education, among others, according to U.S. Census figures. This body of voters represents key battleground states, which will play a pivotal role in the upcoming election.

Understanding these trends in voter sentiment is essential for predicting how the 2024 election will unfold. The differing levels of support based on personal perceptions between Harris and Trump highlight the intricacies of voter behavior, emphasizing how crucial personal likability remains in political contests.

Source: CBS News