Experts say Ukraine’s Kursk counteroffensive defied NATO and targets US election.

Last week, Ukraine initiated a surprising incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, catching both Russian forces and Western observers off guard. This move defied earlier assessments by NATO officials, who believed Ukraine might have to postpone its counteroffensive efforts due to delays in Western military support, particularly the slow approval of U.S. Congress on military aid. This perspective was notably presented by Daniel S. Hamilton, who serves as a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s SAIS.

The unexpected attack has significant implications, especially following months of intense Russian assaults on Ukrainian territory that left many fearing a prolonged retreat for Ukraine in the eastern regions. However, this bold push into Kursk reminds international allies that the outcome of the war is not yet certain.

This development is particularly crucial in the context of the upcoming U.S. elections, a reality that Ukraine is well aware of. Should Donald Trump regain the presidency, there is considerable apprehension regarding the potential reduction of military aid to Kyiv. Trump had previously suggested he would seek to settle the situation quickly if he returned to office.

By launching this operation, Ukraine seems intent on positioning itself advantageously for any possible future negotiations with Russia. As Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, explained, the primary goal of this operation is to build leverage ahead of those potential talks. Watling emphasized that the Ukrainian government aims to secure tangible assets that Russia may be willing to negotiate over, indicating the necessity for Ukrainian forces to take and maintain control of a substantial portion of Russian territory during negotiations.

Hamilton further elaborated that Ukraine’s new offensive strategy reflects its capacity to execute complex military operations effectively. This not only enhances its battlefield positioning but also demonstrates its capability to influence the nature of the conflict actively. However, the sustainability of such operations remains uncertain, especially concerning the ongoing replenishment of Ukrainian forces.

The incursion into Kursk may also signify a shift in Western policy regarding Ukraine’s military actions. Historically, the West has been cautious about allowing Ukraine to launch strikes into Russian territory. Yet, following recent events, several Western nations, including Germany—often hesitant to provoke Moscow—have expressed support for Ukraine’s actions in Kursk.

In a statement earlier this month, Germany’s foreign ministry emphasized that Ukraine has the right to defend itself under international law, a principle that extends beyond its own borders. This endorsement marks a notable change in stance among Western allies, potentially empowering Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia.

Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War has noted that it is too early to ascertain the broader implications and outcomes of Ukraine’s incursion into Russia. The analysis suggests that, given the extensive scope of the Russia-Ukraine war, the recent advances in Kursk and the ongoing operations in eastern Ukraine may not represent “decisive military operations” that could determine the war’s ultimate outcome.

As the conflict evolves, it remains critical to monitor developments on both sides. The landscape of the war is continually shifting, and the actions taken by Ukraine in the coming weeks and months could play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the region.

Source: Business Insider