Experts Warn of Rising Tornado Danger as ‘Twisters’ Hits Theaters

Flying cows, trucks, and a colorful cast of characters delivered a thrilling tale of tornadoes and the researchers who study them in the 1996 blockbuster film “Twister.” The movie increased awareness of deadly storms and inspired a generation of tornado researchers and storm chasers.

Its stand-alone sequel, “Twisters,” which opened in theaters this week starring Daisy Edgar-Jones and Glen Powell, is expected to bring renewed attention to tornado safety. Experts say that increased awareness would be beneficial.

Recently, two teams of real-life tornado experts have warned that changes in storm patterns and human activities have significantly increased the vulnerability and risks associated with tornadoes in the eastern half of the United States.

Tornadoes now occur more frequently in some states and less frequently in others. They also appear during expanded seasons, both earlier and later in the year, even though the overall number of tornadoes has remained relatively stable, researchers note.

According to a study co-authored by Stephen Strader, a hazards geographer and meteorologist at Villanova University, when tornadoes do appear, the chances of striking a home or building are higher simply because there are more buildings than 30 or 40 years ago. This changes the demands on communities that must respond after a tornado hit.

Victor Gensini, Strader’s co-author and an associate professor and meteorologist at Northern Illinois University, emphasizes focusing efforts to save lives where societal risks and storm vulnerability are increasing the most.

“If a tornado goes out into the middle of a cornfield and doesn’t hit anything, the concerned party is the farmer. But take that same tornado and put it over a subdivision, and that illustrates the most important part of the disaster landscape,” Gensini said. “Where we are and what we are matters.”

Nowhere has the tornado risk grown more than in the mid-South region, which includes parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, and the western halves of Kentucky and Tennessee, Strader said.

The study found that many locations in the lower Mississippi Valley or Mid-South have seen the annual average number of tornado days increase by more than two days per decade, coinciding with population growth. Five counties in Mississippi have seen the largest increase in tornado days, with an increase of 3.5 days per decade or more.

“The probability of a tornado hitting people in the mid-South region has increased by about 300%,” Strader said. “It was three times more likely in 2020 than in 1980.”

“It’s a triple threat,” Strader pointed out. A changing climate is creating more favorable conditions for tornadoes, more people are moving into the region, and vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and impoverished, are becoming even more at risk.

The risk remains even in areas with declining tornado occurrences, the study revealed. “Twisters,” like its prequel, is set in Oklahoma. Despite the state’s infamous reputation for tornadoes, fewer tornadoes occur today in Oklahoma and Texas. However, some areas in Texas have seen significant population growth, putting more people and homes at risk, Strader said.

“The disaster isn’t the tornado,” Strader emphasized. “It’s what the tornado hits that becomes the disaster, and that is 90% driven by society’s exposure.”

In areas where tornadoes are increasing, “we have more people than ever before,” he continued. Those people are building more homes and manufactured homes across the landscape. When it comes to disaster preparation and recovery, resources are being spread thinly across more people.

Strader, Gensini, and colleagues Walker Ashley and Amanda Wagner attribute the increase in tornadoes in the East to changes in wind shear and atmospheric instability, leading to more storm activity.

A second paper published in June found that tornado activity has declined in the Great Plains but increased in the Midwest and Southeast. The study led by Timothy Coleman, a research meteorologist at the University of Alabama Huntsville, found that tornadoes are also trending away from the warm season toward the cold season.

Tornado activity varies from year to year, but through June, this year has produced the third most tornadoes year-to-date, behind 2011 and 2008, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. West Virginia – at 18 tornadoes – has already set a new record for tornadoes in a calendar year, the National Weather Service announced recently.

The team with Strader and Gensini reported that severe convective storms, which produce tornadoes, have increased the nation’s billion-dollar disasters with annual losses escalating by more than $1 billion every year when adjusted for inflation. Three of the top 10 costliest disasters last year involved tornadoes.

Insured losses for tornadoes and associated storms set a U.S. record over the past 18 months, according to a report from Gallagher Re, an international reinsurance firm. In the first six months of this year, severe convective storms accounted for $37 billion in losses, the company reported.

The increasing risks “coinciding with a robust expansion of people moving beyond traditional urban centers acknowledge that where and how we live is the primary factor driving loss growth for this peril,” said Steve Bowen, chief science officer for Gallagher Re.

Climate change doesn’t cause tornadoes, but it’s a contributing factor, Gensini said. “We need to stop asking if climate caused this event.”

“We need to start from the premise that climate change is affecting every event, and we need to determine how much,” he said. He sees climate change’s influence in the declining frequency of tornadoes in portions of the Great Plains and possibly in the increase of tornadoes during cooler months. However, the science of defining its impact on tornadoes “is still in its infancy.”

Gensini likened it to baseball’s “steroids era.”

“I have no idea if that home run was due to steroids or a really good at bat,” he said. “But when I step back and look at home runs during the steroids era, it’s pretty obvious something was changing the frequency of home runs.”

Communities need to develop strategies for resilience in the changing tornado landscape, Gensini said. “It’s easier to protect people when we look at how we build homes and where we build them.”

“It’s harder to stop the climate change train, but if a city enforces building codes or installs shelters, those measures will save lives,” he noted.

Communities should consider the needs of those in mobile homes, the elderly, or others with special needs. Mobile home residents might be reminded to take action at the tornado watch stage.

Continued research is vital in communicating the need for better building practices and enforcing more stringent building codes, said Bowen. It’s also crucial that everyone has an opportunity to be better prepared regardless of socioeconomic status.

Source: USA TODAY, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Gallagher Re