Far-Right Alternative for Germany Party Poised for Surprise Election Victory

The Alternative for Germany party, commonly referred to as AfD, is poised to secure a significant victory in the Thuringia state election, according to early exit polls. This election could mark a historical moment, as it may enable the far-right party to become the first of its kind to win a regional election in Germany since the end of World War Two.

As the results roll in, AfD appears to be on track to receive approximately 33.5 percent of the total votes, a notable increase from the 23.4 percent it achieved in the previous election cycle in 2019. Following AfD, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is trailing with about 24.5 percent of the vote, up from 21.7 percent in 2019. The emerging populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), occupies third place with 14.5 percent.

With Germany’s national elections approaching in one year, the implications of these results are particularly severe for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his governing coalition. The disappointing performance of the national government raises concerns as the Social Democrats seem to have met the crucial 5 percent threshold required to maintain their seats in the Thuringia and Saxony parliaments.

In contrast, the outlook for Scholz’s coalition partners, the Greens and Free Democrats, appears more precarious. This uncertainty suggests that further divisions within the coalition may be on the horizon.

Despite the electoral success, all political parties, including BSW, have made clear their intention to exclude AfD from any future coalition government, viewing them as anti-democratic and extremist.

Alice Weidel, one of the national co-leaders of the AfD, characterized the election results as a critical step forward towards the upcoming national parliamentary elections. She emphasized the importance of this moment for the party’s future and ambitions within German politics.

In the last year, AfD has made significant strides, including securing its first mayoral and county government roles. The party is now setting its sights on establishing control at the state level as well.

AfD’s support is particularly strong in eastern Germany, where the political legacy of the former communist regime still resonates. This region poses a unique challenge, as both the branches of AfD in Saxony and Thuringia are under the scrutiny of the domestic intelligence agency due to their classification as “proven right-wing extremist” groups. Notably, the party’s leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has faced legal issues related to his use of a Nazi slogan during public events, although he is currently appealing the conviction.

The electoral landscape in Germany is evolving, and there is growing recognition of the emerging influence of nationalist parties. Zia Yusuf, chairman of Reform UK, shared that he is closely monitoring the German elections, viewing them as indicative of a rising trend in nationalist sentiments among the populace. While noting the distinct differences between his party and AfD, he acknowledged the unprecedented political climate and expressed hopes of doubling their votes over the next five years.