Gen Z Admires Kamala, But Don’t Expect an Obama 2008 Repeat.

The announcement by Kamala Harris to run for president on July 21 triggered an impressive surge in voter registrations. Within just 48 hours, nearly 40,000 individuals signed up through vote.org, with a notable 83% of these being under the age of 35. As NPR correspondent Tamara Keith pointed out, this surge reflects a level of enthusiasm among young voters reminiscent of the Obama campaign in 2008. The pivotal question now is whether Harris can channel this youthful energy towards securing a victory.

In 2008, the Obama campaign took an innovative approach to engage young voters. The campaign established 175 student chapters across Iowa during the Democratic primary, resulting in a significant increase in youth participation in the caucuses. Specifically in key swing states like Pennsylvania and Nevada, young voters reported higher levels of contact from the Obama campaign compared to their older counterparts. This intentional outreach, combined with Obama’s inspiring and inclusive messaging, led to a sweeping victory. By the fall of 2008, 70% of young voters viewed Obama favorably, with two-thirds of those under 30 casting their ballots for him.

Today, as Harris steps into her role as the Democratic nominee, she seeks to replicate this success. However, the dynamics have changed dramatically since 2008, and Harris faces a more complex challenge. Despite a greater enthusiasm towards her candidacy compared to Joe Biden’s, a recent Pew Research Center poll shows that less than half of young voters have a positive perception of Harris. Time is also against her in building this crucial connection before the upcoming election.

One significant characteristic of young voters is their irregular voting habits. Many are still developing their political beliefs and identities, which are heavily influenced by the unique cultural climate they grow up in. The young electorate that Harris, as well as her opponent Trump, are engaging with today is distinctly different from those who galvanized support during the Obama era.

Today’s young voters demonstrate a weaker affiliation to political parties compared to their predecessors. A significant decline in public trust, coupled with a growing independent streak among young adults, has led to more than half of Gen Z identifying as politically independent, according to Gallup. Furthermore, nearly 40% of young people express negative sentiments towards both major political parties, marking a record high.

The optimism that characterized young voters in the early 2000s has faded into a cloud of skepticism. Current statistics reveal that only 21% of young adults feel “extremely proud” to be American, a staggering 34-point decline from a decade ago. Moreover, perspectives on American exceptionalism have shifted, with a mere 43% of adults under 30 believing that other countries would benefit from adopting American values, compared to 70% of those over 65.

Gen Z has grown up amid political cynicism, with recent research indicating a trend towards negative language in news reporting since around 2012. Young voters, like Hunter, a 25-year-old Republican, express a deep mistrust in the political landscape. He critiques both candidates, describing Trump as dishonest yet ultimately preferring his familiarity over Harris, whom he describes as suspicious in her communications.

The political landscape has also given rise to a faction of young, dissatisfied Democrats labeled the “outside left.” Although they remain liberal and oppose Republicans, this group shows little patience for traditional Democratic strategies, complicating the party’s electoral approach. David Shor, a political analyst, notes that these younger progressives advocate for dramatic ideological messaging that may alienate mainstream voters.

Issues important to this younger demographic often diverge sharply from the priorities of an older, more moderate base. For example, while advocacy for defunding the police has strong support among young liberals, it fails to resonate with a majority of Americans. Similarly, Harris has confronted substantial criticism from young progressives over her stance on climate change and U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding Israel.

This rift signals a generational divide within Democratic voters. Over the past decade, younger Democrats have become more liberal, but their priorities do not align with the broader party electorate. This discrepancy complicates Harris’s efforts to unify support.

Additionally, a notable gender gap has emerged over the years. In 2008, support for Obama was nearly uniform across young men and women. Today, young women have become more liberal while young men are increasingly leaning towards the GOP. Young women generally show strong backing for Harris, with a recent poll indicating that 59% of women under 30 view her favorably, compared to only 38% of men. This divide reflects broader trends in political identity among the younger electorate.

Many young women assert that their support for Harris remains grounded in policy rather than her gender, contrasting with some young men who attribute their peers’ support to her potential as the first female president. Harris’s campaign does not prioritize this aspect, favoring a more issues-driven agenda while addressing topics relevant to women, such as reproductive rights.

As trust in government institutions wanes, young voters increasingly favor political outsiders. A 2018 Monmouth University poll underscores this sentiment, indicating a preference for candidates who challenge traditional political norms. Hence, Harris’s establishment background poses a challenge as she seeks to position herself as an agent of change. Unlike Obama, who emerged as an outsider with a message to disrupt the political status quo, Harris’s path has been defined as part of the existing administration, limiting her ability to make sweeping claims of change.

While Harris does not require young voters to be fervent supporters, she does need their participation at the polls. In her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, instead of grand promises for change, she focused on core values and standard policy positions, echoing a return to normalcy after the uncertainties of the Trump era.

Despite a prevailing sense of pessimism among the youth, following Harris’s nomination, reports of young voters feeling optimistic about national direction increased significantly. Polls reflected a turnaround in sentiment, suggesting that her candidacy offers a glimmer of hope, albeit cautious hope, as significant work remains to engage this electorate.

Harris’s optimistic outlook contrasts sharply with Trump’s bleak portrayal of America, which could resonate well with young voters eager for inspiration. However, whether this energy translates into votes is uncertain. Many young people are still uncertain about their voting choices, necessitating Harris’s effort to establish a stronger connection. The challenge lies in mobilizing their support, as it is evident that visibility and connection are crucial for securing their turnout.

Source: Business Insider