Goldman Sachs: Voter Shift to Kamala Harris Boosts Blue Wave Odds

Kamala Harris has gained an edge over Donald Trump in national polling as voters appear to be distancing themselves from third-party candidates, increasing the likelihood of a Democratic wave in the upcoming elections, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Since President Biden suspended his reelection campaign last month, Harris has risen approximately three percentage points in polls, positioning herself as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Her standing has notably improved in critical swing states such as Pennsylvania, where Trump’s lead over Harris is now a slim 0.2 percentage points. To secure victory in the general election, a candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes.

This surge in Harris’s polling numbers is bolstering the prospects for a Democratic sweep of both the White House and Congress, which had seemed unlikely not long ago, according to the investment firm. However, prediction markets still suggest a narrow contest, with expectations of Harris winning the presidency while Democrats may gain control of the House and Republicans likely retaining the Senate, the analysts noted.

Harris’s polling boost, which could rise by another two percentage points after the Democratic National Convention next week, coincides with a sharp decline in support for third-party candidates following Biden’s exit from the race.

Currently, voter backing for third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West has decreased to 6%, down from over 10% prior to Biden’s withdrawal. The Goldman analysts observed that as these third-party candidates previously drew more support from Biden, the remaining third-party backing now seems to be splitting from Trump as well.

The proportion of undecided voters has also significantly reduced since Harris entered the race, now standing at half of what it was just a month ago. The investment bank’s analysts believe that these undecided voters are likely to have made up their minds.

Despite this positive polling trend for Harris, economic instability poses a significant challenge to her chances of winning in November, per the analysts’ assessment. Last week, all major stock indices experienced declines after the yen carry trade started to unravel, prompting substantial movements among traders. Additionally, disappointing jobs numbers raised concerns, resulting in the unemployment rate climbing for the third consecutive month, now at 4.3%.

In spite of these economic challenges, a recent poll conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business found that 42% of voters believe Harris would outperform Trump when it comes to managing the economy.

The Goldman analysts indicated that Harris’s economic strategy will likely resemble Biden’s, with some modifications. However, the majority of voters surveyed in the Financial Times and University of Michigan poll expressed that Harris should either completely diverge from Biden’s economic plans or make significant adjustments.

Overall, Harris’s recent polling success underscores a dynamic shift in the political landscape, one that could significantly influence the direction of the upcoming elections.

Source: Fortune.com