Harris Fails to Get Convention Bounce, Yet Expands Lead Among Women: POLL

Recent polling data from ABC News/Ipsos reveals that Kamala Harris is faring better than Donald Trump regarding personal attributes and perceptions of their respective campaigns. This survey indicates that Harris is viewed more favorably as a candidate, even though the race remains tightly contested. Both candidates exhibited little movement in voter support following their party conventions, showcasing the polarized nature of this election cycle as it approaches the final weeks.

In this national survey, 56% of respondents rated Harris’ campaign as either excellent or good, compared to only 41% for Trump. The results show a stark divergence, with most Americans rating Trump’s efforts negatively. The survey also revealed significant partisan divides, highlighting that an overwhelming 93% of Democrats and 56% of independents view Harris positively, alongside 24% of Republicans. In contrast, Trump’s positive ratings from Republicans stand at 79%, but only 38% of independents and a mere 13% of Democrats share this view.

Supporters of Harris express greater satisfaction with the matchup against Trump, indicating a stronger backing for her candidacy. When asked about the upcoming presidential debate scheduled for September 10, 43% believe Harris will prevail, while 37% favor Trump. Harris leads among her party members, with 86% of Democrats predicting her victory over the debate, while 79% of Republicans believe Trump will win. Additionally, independents choose Harris by a margin of 7 points.

A notable aspect of the enthusiasm surrounding the candidates is the perceived stakes of the election. Approximately 75% of Harris supporters view a Trump victory as a crisis, a sentiment echoed by 67% of Trump backers who feel the same about a Harris win.

When it comes to potential vice presidential picks, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz appears to be favored compared to Ohio Senator JD Vance. Polling data indicates that Americans are split on Walz’s qualifications to assume the presidency if necessary, at 49%-50%. Meanwhile, a significant 57% lack confidence in Vance’s qualifications, as he maintains lower favorability ratings at 32%, while 42% view Walz positively.

Trump leads in perceptions surrounding key issues such as economic management and immigration, with 46% believing Harris is too liberal, while an almost equal percentage deem Trump too conservative. However, from a broader perspective, the overall race remains close, with recent numbers reflecting a 50%-46% advantage for Harris among all voters, and a more pronounced 52%-46% lead among likely voters.

There has been a noticeable increase in the gender gap during the campaign. Harris now commands a 13-point lead among women while Trump holds a narrow 5-point lead among men. This shift illustrates a more pronounced gender divide typical of past elections, akin to the gaps observed in exit polls since 1996. In particular, the demographic shifts among white voters have been notable, reflecting recent trends in voter behavior.

With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump, the overall polling results show only minor shifts. Of those surveyed, 79% indicate that Kennedy’s endorsement does not affect their voting choice, while 12% say it makes them more likely to support Trump, largely skewed towards his Republican base.

The intensity of support is significant, with 64% of Harris followers expressing strong backing, a rise from 60% seen before the convention. On the other hand, Trump maintains a stable 60% who support him strongly. However, for context, previous President Joe Biden only garnered 34% of strong support in a similar timeframe in July.

Despite overall preferences appearing entrenched, many voters have made firm decisions. Among those not currently backing Harris, 86% rule out changing their minds. Similarly, 89% of Trump detractors express the same sentiment. This suggests that motivating voters to cast their ballots may prove more fruitful than persuading individuals to switch allegiances.

Overall, when comparing personal attributes, Harris sustains a lead. Favorability ratings show that 46% view her positively, while only 33% feel the same about Trump. Additionally, voters feel Harris is more qualified for the presidency, as 53% endorse her qualifications compared to 47% who favor Trump.

The survey highlights a partisan disparity; 91% of Democrats see Harris positively, while 72% of Republicans feel the same about Trump. Independents also lean towards Harris at 44% versus 28% for Trump. This trend continues in assessments of honesty and trustworthiness, where 88% of Democrats view Harris more favorably, contrasted with 61% of Republicans who favor Trump.

On critical issues, there is a stark division between the parties. While 90% of Republicans prefer Trump regarding economic management, only 82% of Democrats trust Harris in the same realm. Independents clearly favor Trump on major issues like inflation and immigration, further complicating the electoral landscape.

Looking towards the next stages of the race, public sentiment remains mixed regarding the candidates, showing a slight improvement compared to earlier dissatisfaction levels recorded in July. This time, 53% of voters express discontent with the Harris-Trump matchup, contrasting with 71% dissatisfaction previously noted.

Lastly, the ABC News/Ipsos poll gathered responses from 2,496 adults between August 23-27, 2024, employing a national sample that reflects a diverse array of political affiliations with an error margin of 2 percentage points.

Source: ABC News