Harris Leads Into Labor Day, But Race Remains Wide Open

Vice President Harris is heading into Labor Day weekend with a slight edge over former President Trump in the race for the White House, although the competition remains intense.

According to the national average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Harris leads Trump by about 4 points. In key battleground states that are likely to determine the outcome of the election, she is either ahead or very close to Trump.

In three pivotal “blue wall” states, her lead has remained steady for the last few weeks. Harris is currently up by approximately 1 point in Pennsylvania, 2 points in Michigan, and 4 points in Wisconsin. Recently, she has also claimed her first leads in Nevada and Georgia, albeit both by margins of less than 1 point.

As the election campaign begins to pick up pace following the summer lull, the upcoming Labor Day marks the unofficial start of the fall season. With just nine weeks left until Election Day, these polling numbers highlight a highly competitive race.

This weekend is particularly significant as Harris participated in her first sit-down interview since becoming the Democratic nominee, joined by Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Reflecting on her previous campaign experiences, Harris successfully defended her policy shifts from her 2020 run during an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash on Thursday.

Despite her current momentum, analysts still categorize the race as a toss-up, indicating that neither candidate has a definitive advantage. Pollster Nate Silver noted that Trump has a marginally greater chance of winning the Electoral College in his latest model following the recent Democratic convention, with Trump’s likelihood at 52.4 percent compared to Harris’s 47.3 percent. Silver explained that this disparity partly arises from the expectation that Harris is benefiting from a usual post-convention bounce.

“The good news for Harris is that if she maintains her current numbers for a few more weeks, her standing in our forecast will improve as the model’s confidence increases that she’s moved beyond the convention bounce,” Silver wrote.

Nevertheless, concerns linger for Harris regarding Pennsylvania. Recent polling in the state has shown her either tied with or slightly trailing Trump, suggesting that as any post-convention boost diminishes, her position may weaken further.

Most national surveys indicate that Harris leads by a couple of points, though these figures often fall within the margin of error. The Trump campaign suggested that her recent surge is part of a “honeymoon” phase characterized by favorable coverage that inflates her numbers temporarily.

The Trump campaign acknowledged that Harris is likely to experience another lift but insisted it would be minor and short-lived. They referenced numerous past elections where candidates enjoyed post-convention leads only to lose as Election Day approached.

Indications have emerged that Harris may indeed be experiencing some level of post-convention support increase. After exceeding 49 percent in mid-August, her numbers leveled off, while Trump’s support has dipped from about 46.5 percent to 45.5 percent.

Currently, Harris maintains a modest lead of around 3.5 points over Trump, as corroborated by FiveThirtyEight’s average. Notably, her support has seen a slight increase from below 3 points prior to the convention on August 19.

Silver’s analysis recorded her lead rising from 2.3 points before the convention to 3.8 points now. Even though this boost may be temporary, it is certainly a welcome shift for Democrats, especially since many had perceived President Biden’s chances against Trump to be bleak before he announced his withdrawal from the race.

Harris’s polling numbers since the convention do not allow her campaign a moment of rest. Instead, they signal a challenging race ahead. A Wall Street Journal poll conducted after the convention indicated that Harris had a 1-point national lead in a direct matchup and a 2-point lead when factoring in third-party candidates—both results fall within the margin of error.

Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll showed her with identical leads in both scenarios. A separate USA Today/Suffolk University poll offered her a larger 5-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup.

Although more battleground states appear to be leaning in her favor, the race remains tightly contested. Harris was ahead by 2 points among registered voters in the primary battlegrounds, and by 1 point among likely voters, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

A survey from The Hill and Emerson College Polling showed her leading in Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada, with Trump slightly ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and both candidates tied in Pennsylvania—all well within the margin of error.

On a positive note for Harris, the key states in the Sun Belt—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—are firmly in play after showing signs of drift away from Democrats. A Fox News poll demonstrated her slight lead in the first three states while indicating a minor deficit in North Carolina.

Earlier polling had suggested that Biden’s paths to victory were narrowing in his final weeks in the race, with the likelihood of winning the three critical “blue wall” states being his best opportunity. Despite the possibility of Harris experiencing a temporary bounce, her polling numbers are solid enough that all seven swing states now solidly factor into the race.

The evolving landscape of polling in the weeks ahead remains unpredictable as at least one presidential debate is on the agenda, and this unique election year still harbors the potential for unexpected developments. Both Harris and Trump have a number of strategies available to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, signaling their awareness of the stakes involved.

Source: The Hill