Harris’ momentum stalled but not reversed: 5 key takeaways from polls.

The upcoming debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump carries significant implications for the election. Recent analysis by POLITICO examined five critical indicators regarding the race’s dynamics. This evaluation, now informed by the latest polling, indicates that while Harris’s momentum has stalled, she continues to rise in popularity. Notably, Democratic voters are more energized than during President Joe Biden’s candidacy.

Despite this growth, the competition remains tight. A recent poll from The New York Times/Siena College shows Trump leading Harris by 2 points. However, Harris edges out Trump nationally, with average leads fluctuating between 1 and 3 percentage points. Given the current Republican advantages in the Electoral College, this slim lead aligns more closely with Hillary Clinton’s 2-point deficit in 2016 than Biden’s 4-point victory in 2020.

Adding complexity to the race, the battleground states showcased a similar environment of fierce competition. In polling averages from reputable sources like RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, all seven pivotal states remain closely contested, with leads remaining within a narrow 3-point margin in either direction. Harris’s most substantial advantage is in Wisconsin, averaging 2.7 points, while Trump leads by 2.1 points in Arizona.

A closer inspection reveals the reason behind the stagnant race, where both candidates are striving for momentum heading into the debate. Harris’s favorable ratings have considerably improved since June.

On June 27, her favorable rating was at 39 percent. By August 14, it climbed to 45 percent, and it now stands at 48 percent. This indicates a notable increase in public perception. The number of voters with a favorable opinion of Harris is nearly equal to those who view her unfavorably, reflecting moderate approval for a political figure in today’s polarized atmosphere. Comparatively, Trump has a slightly lower average favorable rating of 44 percent.

Polls illustrate that both candidates have nearly matching favorable/unfavorable ratings, indicating a tightly-knit race. The New York Times/Siena College revealed ratings at 46 percent favorable for Harris versus 46 percent for Trump, further intensifying the competition.

However, the debate presents unique risks and opportunities for Harris. While 90 percent of voters feel they understand Trump well, only 71 percent feel similarly about Harris. This discrepancy means that Harris’s performance in the debate could significantly sway her numbers, whereas Trump’s ratings are likely to remain stable regardless of the event’s outcomes.

The question of third-party candidates in the upcoming election has also evolved. Initially, a significant share of voters seemed inclined towards third-party options, which saw a drastic decline as Harris became the Democratic nominee and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended or scaled back his campaign efforts.

Some polls have even stopped having Kennedy as an option entirely. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, responses indicated a diminishing interest in third-party contenders, with only trivial support noted for candidates like Libertarian Chase Oliver and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Voter enthusiasm appears to have evened out between the two major political parties. Surges in enthusiasm among Democratic voters have caught up with Republicans, resulting in a practically equivalent enthusiasm level. According to The Times, 72 percent of Democrats reported being “very enthusiastic,” while 69 percent of Republicans echoed similar sentiments.

Voter intentions remain strong on both sides as well. Around 63 percent of likely Democratic voters expressed they are “almost certain” to cast their ballots, compared to 61 percent for Republicans. Supporters of both candidates showed a nearly identical commitment to voting, showcasing a fervent electorate.

Concerns over the economy continue to dominate voters’ minds in this election cycle, which historically has favored Trump. Although Democrats are realistic about Harris’s ability to outperform Trump with regard to economic perceptions, they aim to close the substantial gap that Trump has maintained since earlier this year.

In the New York Times/Siena poll, Trump led by 13 points regarding who is more trusted to handle economic issues, with 55 percent of respondents favoring him compared to 42 percent backing Harris. Reducing this gap significantly before the Election Day would be a critical focus for Harris.

The overall sentiment about the country’s direction remains bleak. Polling indicates a slight tilt towards optimism, with 27 percent of Americans feeling the country is on the right track. Among Harris voters, 56 percent expressed a positive belief in the country’s direction, contrasting sharply with Trump supporters, 89 percent of whom feel it’s heading in the wrong direction. A third of Harris supporters still have concerns, indicating that she needs to broaden her appeal.

In light of these dynamic influences, Harris is striving to portray herself as a candidate for change. Effectively communicating this theme will be crucial for her, as current perceptions lean towards Trump representing more substantial change among voters.

This strategic effort emphasizes the importance of the upcoming debate, setting the stage for a decisive campaign phase as they seek votes from critical swing states. The campaign momentum could shift significantly depending on the debate outcomes.