Harris Outranks Trump Overall, But Not on Economic Management: POLL

Vice President Kamala Harris will enter her nominating convention this week with a lead over former President Donald Trump in head-to-head matchups. Recent polling conducted by ABC News, in collaboration with the Washington Post and Ipsos, indicates a significant boost in public enthusiasm and perceived readiness for the job compared to President Joe Biden. Harris enjoys stronger support among crucial voter demographics, particularly swing-voting independents.

Despite Harris’s advantages, Trump continues to maintain a lead on key election issues mentioned in the poll—specifically the economy, inflation, and immigration. This support among voters keeps the race highly competitive.

The latest poll results show that among all adults, Harris, along with Governor Tim Walz, leads Trump and Senator J.D. Vance by 50% to 45%. Among registered voters, the margin is slightly tighter at 49% for Harris to 45% for Trump. However, she enjoys a more substantial lead among likely voters, where she stands at 51% compared to Trump’s 45%.

A look at individual qualifications reveals that 53% of respondents view Harris as qualified for the presidency, while only 47% feel the same about Trump. This perspective reflects a shifting political landscape that favors Harris over Biden’s previous standings.

In a broader five-way matchup, Harris and Walz hold a marginal edge at 47% to 44% against Trump and Vance among the general public and registered voters. Likely voters mirror this sentiment, showing a 49% to 45% preference for Harris and Walz, though the differences are statistically insignificant. This data hints that Democrats may prefer a direct competition with Trump over a multi-candidate scenario.

Support for independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his running mate, has significantly dropped, now sitting at 5%, down from 12% earlier this year. Candidates like Cornel West and Jill Stein receive only 1% of support each.

Harris’ poll numbers indicate notable shifts from July, particularly regarding candidate attributes that voters deem essential. There is now a marked increase in satisfaction among Democrats regarding the presidential race, showcasing a sizable boost in enthusiasm for Harris as their candidate.

Harris leads Trump by a striking 30 points among respondents who believe she possesses the physical health needed for effective presidential service. Additionally, she surpasses Trump by 9 points in perceptions of mental sharpness. These figures underscore a dramatic reversal of sentiments compared to previous polling focused on Biden.

Trustworthiness and empathy also favor Harris, with her leading Trump by 15 points on honesty and 7 points in understanding the problems of the average citizen. Almost 40% of Americans believe that having a woman in the presidency would be a positive advancement for the country, indicating a cultural shift in perceptions about female leadership.

The intensity of support for Harris is notably robust, with 60% of her backers expressing strong support. In comparison, only 34% shared that level of enthusiasm for Biden just a month prior. Furthermore, overall sentiment towards Harris as a viable candidate is markedly higher amongst Democrats when compared to sentiments about Biden earlier this year.

In contrast, Trump’s support remains efficient within his party, yet overall enthusiasm for a potential Trump victory appears static compared to earlier polling data. While half of Americans express dissatisfaction with a Harris-Trump matchup, the sentiment has improved significantly from the dissatisfaction surrounding a Biden-Trump race earlier.

On critical issues shaping the election landscape, Trump retains a considerable advantage regarding trust in handling economic issues and inflation, which are deemed highly important by over 85% of adults surveyed. Harris, however, has shown strength in multiple other areas, demonstrating a 7-point edge on health care and a 6-point lead in protecting American democracy.

Furthermore, Harris’ political background as a former prosecutor may be contributing to improved perceptions on issues like crime and gun violence. She now leads Trump by 5 points in trust to manage gun violence, reversing a prior deficit.

Interestingly, public perception about Harris’ influence on Biden’s administration is noteworthy. Many respondents believe Harris had limited sway over Biden’s economic and immigration policies, which could affect the way voters assess these issues in relation to her candidacy.

Polling reveals drastic swings among various voter demographics, notably among independents, young voters, and women. Harris is now favored by a substantial margin among voters aged 18-29, which had previously leaned toward Trump. Her support among Black voters has significantly increased, reflecting Biden’s earlier standing.

Looking ahead, the importance of persuading undecided voters is clear. Both candidates must fortify their bases while captivating new supporters, a challenging balance amid the polarized political atmosphere. Harris’ rise in the polls provides her with momentum that could prove critical as the campaign progresses.

Source: ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos