Harris Revives North Carolina as a Contender

North Carolina’s political landscape is once again under intense scrutiny as Vice President Kamala Harris revives the state’s significance in the upcoming presidential race.

Following her ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket, Harris has successfully diminished former President Donald Trump’s earlier lead in North Carolina, rekindling hopes for Democrats in a state that seemed to be slipping from their grasp just weeks ago.

This week, both Harris and the GOP nominee campaigned in North Carolina, delivering speeches primarily focused on the economy. Recent polling data released by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report revealed a close contest, with Harris leading Trump by just one percentage point in a direct matchup, a stark contrast to May, when Trump was ahead by seven points.

Despite this shift, securing North Carolina remains a formidable challenge for Harris. The state has supported Republican candidates in every presidential election since 1980, with the notable exception of Barack Obama’s victory in 2008, which he won by a mere 14,000 votes.

Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, emphasized the ongoing Republican advantage in the Electoral College, stating, “The map still does not favor — we still have over 20 different paths to get to 270. She’s got two or three.”

A representative from the Harris campaign highlighted Trump’s previous narrow victory in North Carolina by 1.3 percent during the 2020 election, indicating their expectations for the race’s competitiveness this year. The campaign’s efforts in the state are marked by the opening of more than 20 offices and a significant volunteer base, with over 9,500 individuals stepping forward from a pool of more than 12,000 volunteers.

While Democrats are optimistic, some Republicans caution against presuming North Carolina’s allegiance. GOP strategist Doug Heye pointed out the state’s trend of electing Democratic candidates for lower offices, urging caution from national party leaders. “There’s a laziness in Washington to say, ‘Well the state is always Republican and 2008 was an anomaly,’” he noted.

The political landscape in North Carolina has shown tight races in recent years, with margins of less than five points in presidential elections since 2012. North Carolina GOP communications director Matt Mercer stated, “If you win by five points it’s a blowout. The state’s really red in a lot of areas and really blue in others.”

Democrats recall the coalition that drove Obama’s success in 2008, particularly among young and Black voters, and are keen on making inroads into both suburban and rural areas. Doug Wilson, a political consultant advising Harris’s campaign, emphasized the importance of engaging with voters across the state, which is predominantly rural.

Despite the Democrats’ efforts, the last time they galvanized a winning coalition at the presidential level was over a decade ago. After Obama’s 2008 victory, the state swung back to the Republicans in 2012, when Mitt Romney won, and in the 2016 election, Trump emerged victorious. Conversely, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper narrowly won the 2016 gubernatorial election, showcasing North Carolina’s ability to “split the ticket,” as stated by Trump’s former chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney.

The upcoming gubernatorial race adds another layer of intrigue, particularly with staunchly conservative Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson gaining prominence. Mulvaney noted that enthusiasm surrounding the governor’s race is invigorating the Democratic base, creating a ripple effect that may impact presidential polling.

Opinions on Harris’s ability to secure North Carolina vary, with some Republican insiders expressing skepticism. Yet, Democrats believe that recent population growth in the state could favor their chances, reinforcing the necessity of engaging new voters to transform demographic shifts into electoral victories.

Republicans, however, cite their voter registration edge. Recent data indicates a notable uptick in Democratic registrations following President Biden’s exit from the race last month, marking a shifting dynamic.

The competitive atmosphere is evident as both Harris and Trump recently performed in North Carolina. At an event in Raleigh, Harris unveiled her economic agenda, noting it was her 16th visit to the state since becoming vice president. Trump spoke in Asheville, focusing on economic themes while advisors encouraged him to avoid personal attacks.

In a post-speech interview, Trump indicated he has a “secret weapon” in his daughter-in-law and GOP National Committee co-Chair Lara Trump, a North Carolina native, suggesting her influence could significantly aid his campaign efforts.

As both parties gear up for an uncertain battle in North Carolina, the state is positioned to play a pivotal role in the upcoming election, with both Democrats and Republicans eager to secure its electoral votes.

Source: Nexstar Media, Inc.