Helene Set to Impact Florida This Week

A storm developing in the Caribbean Sea is predicted to transform into a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the upcoming days. This system is expected to make landfall along the Gulf Coast by Thursday, potentially as a significant Category 3 hurricane.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva emphasized the need for preparation among residents of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region. He indicated that this hurricane could be the strongest to hit the U.S. so far this season.

Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut from WeatherTiger echoed these sentiments, warning that the storm, soon to be named Helene, would approach quicker than anticipated. He stressed the importance of going into “hurricane mode” immediately, as uncertainty remains regarding its track and intensity, particularly impacting Florida.

On Monday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 41 counties along and near the Gulf Coast, highlighting the risk of storm surge and flooding in areas still recovering from Hurricane Debby.

Most forecast models indicate a landfall in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The system, classified as “potential tropical cyclone nine” as of Monday morning, is expected to evolve into a tropical storm imminently.

In addition to Florida, tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches have been issued for parts of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

Unlike many hurricanes that may linger in the Atlantic, providing ample warning before landfall, this storm is expected to develop and intensify rapidly once it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

AccuWeather meteorologist Jon Porter advised residents to begin their hurricane preparations promptly, rather than waiting for the storm to receive an official name. He cautioned that this storm has potential to become a powerful hurricane, with maximum sustained winds ranging from 111 to 129 mph.

This storm may be significant enough to define the 2024 hurricane season, Porter noted.

The National Hurricane Center mentioned that showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are becoming more organized. They project that environmental conditions are favorable for further development of this system.

A tropical depression or storm could materialize within the next day or two, as the system progresses northward across the Caribbean and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where further development is anticipated.

By Monday, the Hurricane Hunters were expected to investigate the burgeoning storm. The hurricane center warned that it could rapidly intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, with the possibility of reaching maximum winds of 110 mph.

Favorable oceanic and environmental conditions suggest significant strengthening is likely, with one model indicating a 95% chance that the storm’s winds could increase substantially within the next 72 hours.

Helene could become a formidable storm, leveraging the heat content currently at record levels for this time of the year in the Gulf of Mexico, according to tropical scientist Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami.

There’s a strong likelihood of sustained winds reaching at least 111 mph, with gusts potentially hitting 120 mph where the storm makes landfall on Thursday. Rainfall predictions indicate widespread totals of 8 to 12 inches, creating conditions for flooding as early as Tuesday afternoon or evening, starting from the Keys and moving northward.

Localized power outages are expected across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region, and even into parts of Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and the Carolinas. Additionally, storm surges and tornado threats pose significant risks as the week progresses.

Marine forecasts project that seas in the southeastern Gulf could escalate to 15 feet by Wednesday morning and may peak at 25-30 feet by Thursday morning.

This storm could mark the fourth hurricane landfall in the U.S. this year, joining Beryl, Debby, and Francine. Since 2000, there have only been three years—2004, 2005, and 2020—that also experienced four hurricane landfalls.

Federal forecasters previously predicted an “extraordinary” hurricane season, potentially yielding as many as 24 named storms, while a typical season averages 14 based on historical records from 1991 to 2020.

In a parallel development, the National Hurricane Center reported that Tropical Storm John in the Pacific is rapidly strengthening as it approaches the southern coast of Mexico, with predictions that it could become a hurricane before making landfall, threatening the region with damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding.

Source: USA Today