Hezbollah’s Missiles Could Breach Israel’s Iron Dome, But Risks Destruction.

• Hezbollah is estimated to possess around 200,000 missiles.
• Experts suggest these missiles could potentially overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome defense system.
• The use of such weaponry could ignite a significant regional conflict, risking Hezbollah’s own destruction.

Recently, Israel has delivered heavy blows to Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, targeting its communication systems, eliminating key leaders, and conducting missile strikes against its bases. This ongoing campaign has intensified fears of a potential counterattack from Hezbollah.

Analysts warn that Hezbollah may respond with a large-scale missile and drone assault, posing a grave threat to Israeli forces and potentially escalating the conflict significantly.

According to a 2024 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Hezbollah’s arsenal may include as many as 200,000 missiles. This stockpile could surpass Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system, capable of inflicting severe damage on Israeli cities and infrastructure.

William Wechsler, senior director of Middle East Programs at The Atlantic Council, pointed out that if a full-scale war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah, it could escalate rapidly. Such a conflict would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, into a wider regional warfare scenario, which could ultimately spell disaster for Hezbollah.

The current situation has worsened following the October 7 terrorist attacks on Israel by Hamas. In solidarity with Hamas, Hezbollah has ramped up its rocket fire across the border, prompting thousands of Israelis to evacuate their homes. Israel’s response has been a series of strikes on structures in southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has been striving to prevent a more significant conflict from unfolding, increasing its troop presence in the region to deter Iran and its affiliates.

Despite the situation, Israel has escalated its military actions against Hezbollah. Just last Friday, a string of assassinations targeting senior Hezbollah leaders in Beirut took place, coinciding with missile attacks that have reportedly resulted in approximately 550 fatalities, according to Lebanese health officials.

Wechsler notes that Israel’s aggressive stance suggests a deliberate decision to escalate, even though Hezbollah understands that responding with full force may lead to its own downfall.

Hezbollah’s military build-up began after its war with Israel in 2006, bolstered by Iranian support, equipping itself with not only missiles but also precision-guided munitions and air defense systems.

If these arms were deployed to their fullest extent, the potential loss of civilian lives could be staggering, leading to widespread devastation. However, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is prepared to retaliate with significant force against Hezbollah, as pointed out by Wechsler.

Reports indicate that in the event of a comprehensive war, some Iron Dome batteries may be overwhelmed. This concern has been echoed by U.S. officials asserting that the defense system could face vulnerabilities, particularly in northern Israel.

The Iron Dome is widely regarded as one of the most advanced defense systems globally, consisting of several mobile batteries across Israel, each equipped with multiple launchers and advanced radar capabilities.

An incursion through Iron Dome defenses could spiral into a cycle of violence, with the U.S. likely intervening to support Israel and respond to any American casualties resulting from a Hezbollah attack, as Wechsler suggests.

Iran’s involvement could follow, driven by a fear of losing its crucial proxy group, leading to a potential ripple effect across the region as Tehran may mobilize its network of militias to target U.S. bases and allies.

Thus, Hezbollah and its backers in Tehran likely remain cautious about this chain of events.

Wechsler emphasized that the U.S. will not allow Israel or its Gulf partners to face existential threats. The circumstances suggest that, logically, it may be more prudent for Hezbollah to retreat to a status quo, allowing for weakened Israeli citizens to return safely home.

On the other hand, Hezbollah has shown no signs of backing down, recently launching an unprecedented strike near Tel Aviv, targeting what it claimed was a Mossad headquarters, which was intercepted by Israeli air defense systems.

This attack serves as a potent reminder of Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Amid this tense climate, the unpredictable nature of the conflict raises significant concerns. Analysts are unsure of where Hezbollah’s limits lie regarding an all-out counterattack against Israel. Some speculate potential preparations for a renewed Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon, which could provoke a response from Hezbollah.

As tensions remain high, logical considerations may not dictate Hezbollah’s next moves.

Source: Business Insider