Hispanic Voters Prefer Harris, Yet See Opportunities for Trump: Analysis

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, significant divides among racial and ethnic groups regarding trust in handling critical issues have emerged, particularly concerning Hispanic Americans.

According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Hispanic Americans express a preference for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump by an average margin of 9 percentage points across 11 issues. This is notably less pronounced than the support Harris garners from Black Americans, who favor her by an average of 50 percentage points, and Asian Americans, who favor her by about 23 points. In contrast, Trump leads among white Americans by an average of 12 percentage points.

The findings from Langer Research Associates highlight a complex picture. On various issues, Hispanic Americans tend to distrust Trump more than the general population; however, their trust in Harris remains uncertain. This opens a potential opportunity for Trump to reduce Harris’s lead. While Harris maintains an edge over Trump on personal traits, this may help offset doubts regarding specific policy issues.

If the election were held today, Hispanic Americans would support Harris over Trump by a 56-41% margin. This margin represents a notable shift compared to prior elections, where Hispanic Americans favored Joe Biden over Trump by a substantial 65-32% in 2020 and Hillary Clinton over Trump by 67-27% in 2016.

On a range of 11 key issues, Harris holds a commanding lead over Trump among Hispanic Americans. She outperforms Trump on trust to handle issues such as gun violence, Supreme Court appointments, protecting democracy, health care, abortion, and race relations, by margins ranging from 13 to 25 points. However, on some significant topics, including the economy and immigration, the preferences almost evenly split.

Notably, in the area of economics and inflation, Trump enjoys a 6-point lead. For issues of crime and safety, Harris leads by 6 points, while on immigration, Trump holds a narrow 2-point advantage. On the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, Harris leads by 2 points. Harris’s substantial leads among Hispanic Americans contrast sharply with her standing among Black and Asian Americans, who show even stronger support for her across nearly all issues tested.

When looking at the broader American populace, Hispanic Americans, on average, show a reduced inclination to trust Trump on issues like health care, Supreme Court nominations, and race relations compared to the general electorate. Yet, there are no significant disparities in Harris’s appeal to Hispanic Americans versus the overall population.

Key issues resonate particularly strongly with Hispanic voters; they are more likely than Americans in general to prioritize gun violence, race relations, and health care substantially. This trend also mirrors concerns among Black and Asian Americans, who share similar priorities, especially regarding health care and race relations.

In terms of personal qualities, Harris outperforms Trump on attributes such as shared values, understanding, mental acuity, and honesty, with margins that surpass 20 points among Hispanic Americans. This advantage extends to her support among Asian Americans and is particularly striking among Black Americans, who form a core component of Democratic voter support.

Harris’s lead on these personal attributes contrasts with her performance on issue trust, particularly among white Americans, where the margin is narrower. White voters give Trump slight advantages on understanding issues and mental sharpness while awarding Harris higher ratings on health and honesty.

Partisanship and ideology also impact these perceptions significantly. Hispanic Americans are 16 percentage points more likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans, reflecting a trend seen among Asian Americans as well, albeit to a lesser extent. Black Americans show the starkest partisan divide, with a 46-point gap favoring the Democratic side.

Despite the absence of significant ideological differences regarding liberal self-identification, Hispanic, Black, and Asian Americans tend to see themselves as moderates more frequently than their white counterparts, showcasing a pronounced divide in political ideology across these groups.

Demographics from the survey indicate that white Americans constitute 61% of the adult population, while Hispanic Americans make up 17%, Black Americans 12%, and Asian Americans 5%. The disparities in potential voter turnout could be pivotal. Among registered voters, the percentages shift slightly, with white Americans representing 66%, Hispanic Americans 14%, and Black Americans 12%.

With turnout rates crucial in tight races, these demographic dynamics among racial and ethnic groups will likely play a critical role in the 2024 election outcome.

Source: ABC News