Hurricane Francine Could Bring 100 MPH Wind Gusts, Forecasters Warn

Tropical Storm Francine, which may soon evolve into a hurricane, has been steadily gaining strength since its formation in the Gulf of Mexico. As of Tuesday morning, the storm’s winds have been clocked at approximately 65 mph. Meteorologists are now asking: What is the potential strength of Francine as it approaches land?

The National Hurricane Center forecasts “steady to rapid strengthening” as Francine makes its way toward Louisiana, with landfall expected on Wednesday evening. The latest predictions indicate sustained winds could reach 90-95 mph nearing the storm’s center, categorizing it as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Experts point to unusually warm seawater in the Gulf as a contributing factor to the potential for rapid intensification, which occurs when a storm increases its wind speeds by at least 35 mph in under 24 hours.

Nonetheless, while warm waters promote intensification, strong winds in the upper atmosphere may act as a deterrent. According to the hurricane center, “The tropical cyclone should be over very warm waters before landfall, although west-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system is likely to increase.” This wind shear can unravel tropical cyclones, hindering their development and strength.

The hurricane center warns of damaging and potentially life-threatening hurricane-force winds in southern Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is currently in place. Gusts could reach as high as 115 mph.

As of this morning, areas including St. Mary, Iberia, Terrebonne, and Cameron parishes are expected to face the worst of the winds. Each of these parishes has over a 5% chance of experiencing winds surpassing 74 mph, with an 80% probability for encountering tropical storm force winds. Authorities advise that preparations for protecting life and property must be finalized by Tuesday evening, as tropical storm conditions are anticipated to begin early Wednesday.

With a Category 1 storm anticipated at landfall, the hurricane center urges residents in the storm’s path to prepare for the possibility of a stronger storm. The dangers associated with a Category 2 storm could lead to extensive damage, including:

• Significant roof and siding damage to well-constructed homes.
• Many shallow-rooted trees likely to be snapped or uprooted, leading to obstructed roads.
• Near-total power outages lasting several days to weeks.

There is growing concern about the trend of rapid intensification among tropical cyclones. Warmer sea surface temperatures have been linked to an increase in storms that experience this phenomenon. From 1980 to 2023, 177 landfalling Atlantic tropical cyclones underwent rapid intensification, with around 70% of the 63 billion-dollar storms in the U.S. since 1980 also rapidly intensifying.

Recent hurricanes have illustrated this trend; for instance, Hurricane Idalia rapidly intensified last year, while Hurricane Ian underwent two stages of rapid intensification in 2022.

In the coming days, monitoring and tracking of Tropical Storm Francine will be crucial as it continues to develop. Residents in the affected areas are encouraged to stay updated through reliable sources.

Source: USA Today