JD Vance Less Popular Than Sarah Palin

Making a positive first impression is crucial, especially in significant roles such as a vice-presidential candidate. The recent selections for the vice-presidential spots in the upcoming election have sparked interest due to their contrasting initial public perceptions.

Currently, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee for vice president, enjoys a notable level of popularity among voters. As of mid-August, 38 percent of Americans view him favorably, while 33 percent hold an unfavorable opinion, according to 538’s polling data. This favorable perception reflects a commendable characteristic for a politician in today’s landscape.

Democrats successfully branded Walz as a paternal figure, drawing on his background as a teacher, coach, and National Guardsman. This strategy seemed to resonate when he was introduced as Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate, with several polls immediately indicating a double-digit positive net favorability rating. However, his unfavorable ratings have edged up slightly, primarily due to accusations from Republicans who claimed he exaggerated aspects of his military service. Still, he maintains a solid average net favorability rating of +5 points.

On the flip side, the reception for the Republican nominee, Senator JD Vance, has been lukewarm at best. Recent polls show that only about 33 percent of Americans have a favorable view of him, while 42 percent express unfavorability.

Vance’s unpopularity was evident shortly after his announcement as Donald Trump’s running mate. Within just three days, he recorded a net favorability rating of -3 percentage points. Following a series of negative headlines—including derogatory remarks about Vice President Harris, his push for a national abortion ban, and a bizarre rumor involving a couch—his net favorability continued to decline. Currently, he sits at a troubling net favorability of -9 points, placing him in a historically unfavorable position among vice-presidential candidates.

Analyses of polling trends over the past two decades indicate that none of the recent vice-presidential candidates have faced a net favorability rating as unfavorable as Vance’s. Most candidates typically enjoy more favorable ratings than unfavorable ones, reflecting a divided but generally ambivalent public opinion shaped by partisan allegiances.

Historically, candidates like former Senator John Edwards in 2004 started with a robust net favorability rating, while others such as Senator Tim Kaine in 2016 finished under water on Election Day. Surprisingly, figures like former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, often remembered for her poor candidacy, initially boasted a more favorable perception before her numbers deteriorated significantly during the campaign.

While Vance’s current ratings are indeed troubling, they are not unprecedented from a historical standpoint. He has time ahead of him before the election, which introduces the possibility of a recovery in his popularity. However, the initial trajectory is reminiscent of Palin’s steep decline, primarily fueled by emerging public distractions and controversies.

It’s essential to recognize that the political landscape is polarized, which complicates the assessment of a candidate’s popularity. Even in less favorable polling, Vance maintains a favorable rating among Republicans that significantly counterweighs his overall numbers. For instance, a recent poll indicated a net favorability of +64 points among Republican respondents, which illustrates the loyalty of party bases in a divided electorate.

Considering the dynamics in play and the historical precedent for vice-presidential candidates, there remains potential for Vance to stabilize his position. Nevertheless, he faces the risk of positioning himself as one of the least favorable candidates in recent memory, casting a shadow over his candidacy and potentially impacting the larger campaign.

In light of these developments, Vance has suggested that the role of a vice-presidential candidate may not significantly influence election outcomes; a statement that, while true in certain contexts, overlooks the potential for detrimental effects from an unfavorable candidate. Historical data indicates that an unappealing vice-presidential candidate can cost a significant portion of votes, as exemplified in the 2008 election with Palin.

As this election cycle unfolds, the implications of Vance’s popularity—or lack thereof—could pose challenges not only for his campaign but for the Trump ticket overall. With mounting concerns regarding Vance’s image, Republicans may want to approach the upcoming election with increased caution regarding the potential influence of their vice-presidential selection.

Source: 538