Justin Trudeau’s future as Canada’s prime minister appears increasingly uncertain

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing significant challenges following a recent loss in a longstanding parliamentary seat. The seat, held by his Liberal Party for most of the last century, was lost to the Bloc Québécois in the Montreal area of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun.

The election result, confirmed early Tuesday, saw Liberal candidate Laura Palestini narrowly defeated by Bloc Québécois’ Louis-Philippe Sauvé by a margin of just 0.8%. Sauvé garnered 28% of the votes, compared to Palestini’s 27.2%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate Craig Sauvé came in third in this tightly contested three-way race, which had fluctuating frontrunners throughout the vote counting process.

This defeat marks the second loss for Trudeau’s government in less than three months, further intensifying scrutiny on his leadership. In June, Trudeau’s Liberals lost the Toronto-St. Paul seat—a safe district they controlled since 1993—to the Conservatives in a by-election, prompting renewed calls for his resignation within the party.

Polling data indicates that the Liberal Party has continued to struggle, lagging significantly behind the Conservatives at the federal level. Current estimates place the Liberals at approximately 25% support, while the Conservatives lead with about 43%. An Ipsos poll from early September revealed that Trudeau’s approval rating has dipped to only 33%, with two-thirds of Canadians expressing disapproval of his handling of the nation’s pressing issues, particularly the rising cost of living and the ongoing housing crisis.

Trudeau’s main opponent, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, holds an impressive leading position in the preference polls, with 45% of respondents favoring him for prime minister compared to only 26% for Trudeau.

Despite the mounting pressure, Trudeau recently stated on Montreal radio station CJAD 800 that he would not resign even if the Liberal Party lost in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun. He expressed his commitment to leading the party through until the next scheduled election in October 2025, stressing his intent to address the challenges ahead.

Prior to the election results, political veteran and Liberal strategist Andrew Perez suggested that another defeat could signify serious trouble for Trudeau’s future. He warned that a loss in what was perceived as a safe Liberal seat could seriously undermine the party’s chances not just in Quebec but across Canada during a critical election year.

Lori Turnbull, a political analyst and professor at Dalhousie University, echoed similar sentiments, indicating that the narrative surrounding Trudeau’s government being finished would become difficult to counter if such losses continued.

The stability of Trudeau’s government now hangs in the balance, with questions arising about whether it can last until the next federal election. Poilievre has announced plans to introduce a no-confidence motion against the Trudeau government as soon as Parliament reconvenes, aiming to trigger an election. However, the success of this strategy hinges on securing support from the NDP and the Bloc Québécois, leaving the potential for immediate elections uncertain.

As political tensions rise and Trudeau’s party faces mounting criticism, the future of his leadership and the Liberal Party’s standing in Canadian politics remain precarious as they approach a potentially tumultuous period ahead.