Kamala Harris’ Election Would Break History: Only 1 VP Elected as President

As Vice President Kamala Harris embarks on her campaign for the presidency, she can draw lessons from the past attempts of former vice presidents seeking the highest office in the land. Historically, the odds are not in her favor, with only one sitting vice president—George H.W. Bush in 1988—having successfully made the leap to the White House since 1836. Other notable vice presidents who attempted to ascend, such as Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, and Al Gore, experienced narrow defeats, often influenced by various factors, including the political climate and their relationships with the sitting president.

As noted by Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, there are two significant elements that can impact a vice president’s chances: the popularity of the incumbent president and the quality of the relationship between the president and vice president. A well-liked president often fosters a favorable environment for their vice president, allowing them to benefit from the president’s positive image. Additionally, a collaborative relationship between the two can greatly enhance a vice president’s chances of success.

In the 1988 election, George H.W. Bush leveraged the advantages of a strong economy, reduced Cold War tensions, and an effective partnership with President Ronald Reagan. Reagan’s high approval ratings contributed to Bush’s decisive victory against his opponent, Democrat Michael Dukakis. Their strong working relationship was evident, as Reagan was publicly supportive of Bush, openly praising him for his commitment and effectiveness throughout the campaign. This dynamic helped Bush secure his place in history as an exception among vice presidents seeking the presidency.

Al Gore’s presidential bid in 2000 was marked by factors that should have favored him—namely, a robust economy and prevailing peace under President Bill Clinton, despite the clouds of Clinton’s impeachment over his scandal with Monica Lewinsky. Gore had previously worked alongside Clinton, but the lingering tensions from the scandal significantly impacted his campaign strategy. Furthermore, Gore sought to create distance from Clinton by asserting his independence, a move analyzed as a misstep that ultimately hurt his chances in a razor-thin election decided by just 537 votes in Florida.

Historian Jacob Weisberg observed that instead of embracing the successes of the Clinton administration, Gore distanced himself during a critical time, leading to questions about his viability as a candidate as he lost touch with the voters who admired the administration’s achievements.

Similarly, Richard Nixon faced challenges when he ran for president in 1960. Although popular, President Dwight Eisenhower had a complicated relationship with Nixon, who was younger and eager to establish his own identity apart from the administration. While Nixon sought to maintain a degree of independence, Eisenhower’s widespread popularity created an environment that was challenging for the vice president. The lack of a solid campaign endorsement from Eisenhower left Nixon vulnerable against his challenger, John F. Kennedy.

Hubert Humphrey’s circumstances were even more daunting as he sought to succeed Lyndon B. Johnson. Despite aspirations to diverge from Johnson’s polices, the war in Vietnam overshadowed his campaign. Facing anti-war candidates within the party, Humphrey struggled to define his stance due to the pressure exerted by Johnson’s hawkish approach. Humprehy’s late attempt to pivot the narrative by advocating for a halt to the bombing in North Vietnam demonstrated the difficulties he faced. His efforts, while rallying support in the fall, ultimately left him short, as the popular vote narrowly favored Nixon.

As Kamala Harris takes on her own campaign, she looks to navigate a different political landscape. President Joe Biden has announced that he will not seek reelection, a twist that adds unique challenges for Harris. While she has garnered early support from within the Democratic Party, she must manage a landscape where Biden’s approval ratings hover at around 40%, comparable to those of Republican hopeful Donald Trump. Unlike Humphrey, Harris has quickly unified the party and demonstrated diverging strategies without the pressures of unrest seen in 1968.

In contrast to previous vice presidents, Harris holds the advantage of Biden’s strong endorsement and the backing of his administration. As they prepare to campaign together in pivotal states, like Pennsylvania, it remains critical for Harris to align her vision with Biden’s accomplishments while simultaneously establishing her identity as a candidate for the future.

For Harris, understanding the complexities of the past vice presidential campaigns may provide insights as she works to solidify her standing in this upcoming election cycle.

Source: Associated Press