Kamala Harris Gains Support in Key Sun Belt States: Leads Arizona, NC

Recent polls indicate a notable shift in the political landscape of the Sun Belt, particularly in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. As of early July, former President Donald Trump appeared poised to dominate these battlegrounds. In a striking contrast to the 2020 election, where President Joe Biden managed to win three of the four states, the dynamics have changed significantly.

With Biden announcing his decision not to seek reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the leading candidate for the Democrats. This development has revitalized the party’s chances in the crucial swing states, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls.

Biden’s declining political support had limited his potential to achieve victory through narrow margins in states like Pennsylvania and several upper Midwestern battlegrounds. However, Harris has shown a much more competitive edge. In fact, she and Trump are now virtually tied across these states, each garnering 48% support from likely voters.

According to the polls, Harris leads Trump by five points in Arizona, with a support ratio of 50% to 45%. Similarly, she holds a two-point lead in North Carolina, obtaining 49% against Trump’s 47%. On the other hand, Trump has a one-point advantage in Nevada, polling at 48%. In Georgia, he leads Harris by four points, securing 50% to her 46%.

Winning Arizona could hold significant implications for Harris, particularly in light of Trump’s historical emphasis on immigration issues. In her campaign, Harris has drawn upon her prosecutorial background to connect with voters in this border state. She has also highlighted Trump’s efforts to undermine a bipartisan immigration proposal that collapsed in Congress earlier this year.

Polls further reveal that Harris has garnered strong support from specific demographics, particularly among young voters, Black voters, and women. Notably, she holds a substantial 16-point advantage among likely voters aged 18 to 29, obtaining 55% compared to Trump’s 39%. This demographic had previously shown a lukewarm response to Biden’s reelection campaign, making Harris’s appeal a crucial factor moving forward.

As for Black voters, Harris has achieved an impressive 84% support rate. This is particularly crucial in North Carolina, where the state has not favored a Democratic presidential nominee since Barack Obama’s victory in 2008. In North Carolina, Harris’s numbers among Black voters are striking, as she outpaces Trump with an 86% to 9% margin.

Harris’s outreach extends to women voters as well. She maintains a notable 14-point lead over Trump among this critical group in the Sun Belt states, with a support ratio of 55% to 41%. Issues such as the economy and reproductive rights have emerged as powerful motivators, likely contributing to a widening gender gap in these upcoming elections.

The timing of these polls is significant as the Democratic National Convention approaches, with expectations surrounding Harris’s speech being notably high. This opportunity comes just a month after Biden’s exit from the race. As many voters are familiar with Harris yet may lack understanding of her various policy positions, her upcoming address could serve as a pivotal moment for her campaign.

Democrats are aiming for Harris to build momentum from her convention performance, hoping for a boost in polls that would carry her forward to the scheduled presidential debate on September 10 and the commencement of early voting in several critical states.

Source: Business Insider