Kursk’s Battle Liberates Ukraine from a Failing War Strategy

The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has recently taken a significant turn with Ukraine’s latest offensive into the Kursk region of Russia. This move marks a pivotal moment in the nearly two-year-long war, which had seen Ukraine facing the grim prospect of yielding ground to the larger and more aggressive Russian forces.

As of early August, the narrative seemed bleak for Ukraine, with the country appearing on the defensive amidst a relentless Russian barrage. However, the Kursk offensive has not only allowed Ukraine to capture approximately 480 square miles of Russian territory but has also restored the momentum in Kyiv’s favor. This strategic shift has forced Moscow to respond to Ukraine’s actions, turning the tables on the previously dominant Russian forces.

George Barros, a military expert from the US-based Institute for the Study of War, explained that Ukraine faced a crucial decision: either reinforce its eastern defenses to withstand ongoing Russian attacks in the Donetsk region or launch an offensive in the northeast towards Kursk. Barros noted that historians would likely debate the merits of allocating resources for defense versus the offensive in coming years. However, he highlighted that historically, it is advantageous to take action rather than passively endure attacks indefinitely. This offensive has enabled Ukraine to contest the initiative that had been predominantly in Russian hands for much of the preceding year.

Earlier in the year, Barros emphasized the importance of regaining the initiative for Ukraine to keep Russian forces unsettled and prevent Moscow from consolidating overwhelming power at strategic points. He argued that rather than committing all resources to a singular, grand offensive—which Ukraine attempted earlier in 2023 and ultimately led to disappointing results—smaller, more targeted offensives against weaker segments of the Russian front could strategically wear down Russian morale and capabilities over time.

While the long-term impact of the Kursk operation remains undetermined, it is unlikely to deliver crippling setbacks to Russia or compel a cessation of the Kremlin’s offensive in Donetsk. However, one significant outcome is the embarrassment inflicted on President Vladimir Putin, challenging the narrative of invulnerability that has surrounded the Russian leadership. More importantly, this has forced Russian commanders into the unpredictable terrain of improvised warfare, a domain they typically struggle to navigate. Additionally, control of this territory could serve as leverage in any future negotiations, should Ukrainian forces manage to hold it.

Current assessments suggest that Ukraine is focusing on solidifying its newly acquired position in Kursk rather than extending its offensive further. This strategy, however, presents a challenge as Kyiv must juggle maintaining its foothold against Russian forces while also safeguarding critical areas such as Kharkiv and the southern regions. Hence, Ukraine is now in a position where it must efficiently allocate its resources to apply continued pressure on Russia, all while avoiding further territorial losses.

The situation in the northern theater currently favors Ukraine in terms of initiative, while the Russians remain dominant in the eastern and southern fronts. To sustain this initiative, Barros indicated that Ukraine must persist in offensive actions, either in Kursk or at other critical points along the front, in a manner that creates dilemmas for Russian forces. For Ukraine to maintain this pressure, it will require time, additional manpower, and artillery ammunition. Ideally, this could include less stringent engagement rules, enabling the use of advanced munitions like ATACMS against Russian positions.

At the very least, the offensive in Kursk has complicated Russia’s strategic planning. Until now, Moscow has avoided a robust defense along much of its extensive 600-mile front line, allowing it to concentrate forces where it deemed necessary, such as in Donetsk. If the Kursk offensive succeeds in forcing Russia to divert attention and resources to defend its borders appropriately, this would still represent a strategic achievement for Ukraine.

The next steps for Ukraine remain uncertain. Barros pointed out the complexity of ongoing developments, including numerous unverified reports of Ukrainian operations across the theater, which are indicative of a determined effort to keep Russian command engaged and reactive to emerging threats.

Source: Business Insider