National Hurricane Center Monitors 3 Tropical Disturbances in Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean, but the outlook for the approaching Labor Day weekend appears tranquil in the tropics.

One of these disturbances, a tropical wave situated east of the Lesser Antilles, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by mid to late next week as it travels westward. According to the center’s update at 8 a.m. ET on Saturday, this system is projected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continue its path across the Caribbean Sea.

The hurricane center has assigned a 50% chance of further development for this system over the coming week.

In addition to this wave, there are two other systems that are being monitored for possible development, though their chances remain low over the next 48 hours.

• Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad low-pressure system is currently situated in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, near the upper Texas coast. It has been producing rain and thunderstorms along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski has noted that this “tropical rainstorm” could lead to heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and potentially gusty winds in parts of Texas and Louisiana. The chance of this system morphing into a tropical depression near the Gulf Coast has been rated at 20% over the next week.
• Eastern Tropical Atlantic: The second system is a tropical wave located in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. NHC forecasters Kelly Mahoney and Brad Reinhart indicated that if any development occurs, it will be gradual as the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward through the eastern and central tropical Atlantic in the following week. The likelihood of development for this system has been estimated at just 10% over the next seven days.

The current situation raises questions about whether September will usher in a more active Atlantic hurricane season. The hurricane center is keeping a close eye on the three tropical systems in search of signs that they might strengthen into more significant storms.

In the Gulf of Mexico, storm activity could pick up due to record water temperatures, which are conducive to the formation of storms and hurricanes. AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva commented that if a system were to develop in the Gulf, it could intensify quickly. “People have to pay attention: storms can evolve and strengthen rapidly,” he warned.

Similarly, in the Atlantic, the presence of dry and dusty air coming from Africa has so far hindered storm development. However, forecasts suggest that this dust will dissipate, allowing conditions in the Atlantic to become more favorable for storm formation. “The dust will go away, and allow for the Atlantic to wake up,” explained DaSilva.

With these factors at play, the coming weeks could prove crucial in determining the course of the 2023 hurricane season.

As the weekend unfolds, residents and travelers are encouraged to stay informed about these tropical disturbances and any potential developments. Given the unpredictability of tropical systems, regular updates from the National Hurricane Center will be essential for safety and preparedness.

Source: USA TODAY