Netanyahu’s Threat of Regional War to Salvage His Political Career

The recent assassination of a prominent Hezbollah leader in Lebanon, coupled with the suspected killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, raises concerns of escalating violence and instability across the Middle East. Such actions may lead to dire consequences in a region already grappling with turmoil.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long positioned Iran and its allies as dire threats to Israel, advocating for military responses. With growing international demonstrations against Israel’s actions in Gaza, potential charges at the International Criminal Court, and calls for new elections looming, there is a heightened risk that Netanyahu will provoke a broader confrontation with Tehran to secure his political survival.

The conclusion of the conflict in Gaza poses a significant risk to Netanyahu’s political career. Investigations into Israel’s intelligence and military shortcomings on October 7 are anticipated once the fighting ceases, which would likely point to failures under his leadership. Many Israelis have already initiated unofficial reviews of the situation, and Netanyahu’s current government lacks stability, making him vulnerable should elections occur soon.

Furthermore, like former U.S. President Donald Trump, Netanyahu faces legal issues related to corruption. If he were to leave office, the legal consequences could be severe, giving him a strong incentive to remain in power for as long as possible.

While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in Haniyeh’s assassination, numerous Israeli officials have publicly acknowledged the act, signaling support for what appears to be part of a broader Israeli strategy of targeting Iranian nuclear scientists and leadership.

The recent killings align with Netanyahu’s strategy to extend the ongoing crisis. With the chief negotiator of Hamas now dead and an Israeli attack resulting in casualties at a Gaza school, efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, which Netanyahu’s government has already delayed, have become even more complicated. The likelihood of Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation for these alleged targeted assassinations suggests a potential for further escalation in the region.

This pattern of provocations is reminiscent of events earlier this year. In April, Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus, a clear violation of both Syrian and Iranian sovereignty. Iran’s response involved launching numerous rockets and drones toward Israel, inadvertently allowing the narrative to shift. Israel was then cast as defending itself, gaining support from the U.S., U.K., and Jordanian governments.

Currently, the most immediate threat looms over Lebanon, where Israeli officials are actively contemplating a military invasion. Netanyahu has indicated plans to maintain military operations in Gaza while potentially shifting forces northward to Lebanon, signaling an intent to escalate the situation further.

Since the beginning of October, tensions have surged between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, an Iranian-aligned Lebanese militia. Hezbollah has conducted cross-border strikes while Israel has launched extensive attacks deep within Lebanese territory, leading to the assassination of Hezbollah leaders. Israeli operations, including the use of white phosphorus, have resulted in over 100 civilian deaths in Lebanon, displacing approximately 90,000 individuals and destroying vast areas of agricultural land.

Historically, when Netanyahu has escalated tensions with Iran, the current U.S. administration has typically refrained from harsh criticism, aligning closely with Israeli interests. Such actions set a troubling precedent for future confrontations, raising concerns about regional stability.

The unfolding events highlight the urgent need for sustained international pressure aimed at achieving a permanent ceasefire, halting arms supplies to Israel, and addressing the severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Reports indicate that nearly 40,000 Palestinians have lost their lives, with the International Court of Justice suggesting a plausible case for genocide.

The latest rounds of violence threaten to deepen the humanitarian crisis across the region, putting millions of lives at risk and underscoring the need for immediate action to prevent further deterioration.

Source: articles from various news outlets