New Harris-Trump Poll Reveals Risks for Former President in Florida

The anticipated Republican dominance in Florida may not be as firm as previously thought, based on a recent presidential poll released by USA TODAY and Suffolk University. According to the survey of 500 registered voters, Vice President Kamala Harris is now within striking distance of former President Donald Trump in the state.

Trump leads Harris by just five percentage points, garnering 47% support compared to Harris’s 42%. This margin is significantly narrower than Governor Ron DeSantis’s substantial 19-point victory in 2022, and it falls within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4%. The hint of competitiveness in this race is seen as reflective of the enthusiasm Harris has sparked nationwide within the Democratic Party since she announced her candidacy.

Notably, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 5% of support in the survey, with another 5% of voters undecided or refusing to provide a response. The poll was conducted via phone interviews between August 7 and 11.

Florida, once esteemed as the nation’s largest swing state, has shown a troubling trend regarding its battleground status. Following Trump’s 3.3 percentage point victory over President Joe Biden in 2020, and DeSantis’s strong showing in subsequent elections, Democrats have seen a significant decline in voter registration. Currently, Republicans outnumber Democrats in Florida by one million registered voters, a challenging gap for any Democratic candidate to bridge.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, expressed surprise at Harris’s proximity to Trump in the poll, considering the state’s political landscape. He added that while this isn’t a universal signal for alarm regarding Trump’s position, it should serve as a cautionary indicator against assuming an easy win for the former president in Florida.

Paleologos remarked, “What was once an easy drive through the Sunshine State is now a drive with caution,” underscoring that although Harris remains an underdog, she is closer to Trump than many might expect.

A positive sign for Harris is the level of enthusiasm among her supporters, which matches that of Trump’s base. In the poll, 89% from both camps expressed being very or somewhat excited to vote for their respective candidates. This contrasts sharply with a June USA TODAY/Suffolk national poll, in which only 60% of Biden’s supporters indicated excitement about voting for him.

Since Biden’s exit from the race last month and the subsequent elevation of Harris to the Democratic ticket, she has gained a relatively favorable view among voters in Florida. Approximately 44% expressed a positive opinion of Harris, compared to 39% for Biden, although this difference also falls within the margin of error.

Harris has been active in rallying the Democratic base since taking over, raising significant funds and attracting large crowds at national events last week. In contrast, Trump is grappling with defining his new opponent while facing backlash for personal attacks that some party members view as counterproductive. Trump has faced criticism for questioning Harris’s racial identity, a contentious issue in a state with a substantial population of Black voters.

Despite Trump’s challenges in the poll, he retains a higher favorability rating than both Harris and Biden, currently at 50%. His overall job approval rating during his presidency also outstrips Harris’s approval as vice president. However, he is currently trailing independent voters in Florida by seven points, a shift from losing independents by 11 points to Biden in the 2020 election, despite ultimately winning the state.

Among voters, feelings toward Trump are mixed. Janie Brookbank, a 72-year-old independent voter, plans to support Harris. A former Republican, Brookbank no longer identifies with the party and is vocal in her disdain for Trump, calling him “mean” and “abysmal.”

Barbara Oppenheimer, a 79-year-old resident of Ocala who identifies as a Republican, also expressed dissatisfaction with Trump, particularly after the January 6 Capitol riot. While initially supportive of his candidacy in 2020, she now intends to cast her vote for Kennedy, expressing that Harris would also be a suitable leader.

Conversely, Dr. David Pittenger, an 86-year-old retired physician, remains in Trump’s camp, citing frustrations surrounding illegal immigration and inflation as deciding factors in his support. He continued to challenge Harris’s effectiveness, claiming she has not demonstrated commitment towards the everyday citizen.

Florida’s political landscape is shifting, raising questions about the effectiveness of Trump’s campaign as Harris gains traction among voters.

Source: USA TODAY